On the final Saturday of September, Sydney will square off against Brisbane at the MCG to determine the premiers of 2024.
The Lions took the win in their previous outing, but on neutral territory the match shapes to be evenly poised.
So what statistics matter most for either side on the big day? Let's dive into the key areas that each club needs to hone to boost their odds at premiership glory.
The Swans have been the team to beat all year, with their corridor ball movement and lightning quick transition from half-back producing the most goals per game in the league.
This style of play has also produced a league-leading scoring rate of 48.5% per inside 50 for the Swans.
Nick Blakey is a key component to the Swans' counterattacking play. Average 5.8 rebounds 50s per game, Blakey is ranked fifth in the AFL. With a surging attack straight through the middle of the ground, the Swans are able to get their forwards one-out with their opponents, or even completely uncontested, providing silver-platter service to Tom Papley, Logan McDonald, and Joel Amartey.
Against the Power, these three forwards combined for eight goals as the Swans punished Port Adelaide off of halfback. Blakey recorded a monstrous nine rebound 50s, as Dane Rampe tacked on five too.
Against the Giants, Chad Warner and Callum Mills spurred on the final quarter rise of the Swans, recording ten rebound 50s between them for the match.
In the previous fixture with Brisbane, the Swans maintained strong efforts off halfback, with Tom McCartin, Oliver Florent and Blakey combining for 20 rebound 50s. However, the Lions forced Sydney down the boundary line, negating their potency from the defensive 50.
Should the Swans backmen produce another stellar finals performance, they'll have to ensure they take the attack through the middle of the ground to avoid the stagnant ball movement across the wing that occurred in Round 19.
All eyes will be on Brodie Grundy on Saturday, as his match-up against Darcy Fort presents favourably for the Swans recruit.
Oscar McInerney's shoulder injury is a massive blow to the Lions, with the Lions ruckman matching Grundy's efforts in Round 19, recording 27 hitouts to Grundy's 29. Additionally, Grundy and McInerney provide similar tap service to their midfielders - Grundy averages nine hitouts to advantage per game, McInerney averages 7.6.
However, Fort, who has played two AFL games in 2024, averages concerningly low hitouts to advantage - recording just one from 40 taps.
This gives Grundy a prime opportunity to dominate on the big stage. Whilst Fort will no doubt produce a valiant effort, Grundy can utilise his experience to provide quality hitouts to a star-studded midfield. The Swans and Lions midfield battle has blockbuster matchups no matter where you look, meaning first use will be vital in controlling the tempo out of the stoppage.
So far this year, Brisbane's goalkicking accuracy at the MCG hasn't been wasteful, scoring a combined total of 37.33 from three appearances. This goalkicking accuracy is an average of 52.9%, well above their season average of 46.8%, which ranks them 16th in the league. Their preliminary final was their highest stakes game at the 'G since the 2023 Grand Final, and once again in 2024, the Lions' forwards held up, booting 14.11.
The Lions evidently have the ability to kick away from their opponent when accurate. Against the Giants in the semi-final, the Lions shot themselves in the foot early with a first-half score line of 4.10.
After two more behinds, the Lions kicked 11.2 to finish the match, recording a 49-point turnaround to seal an all-time win.
Against Geelong, Brisbane were faced with a similar challenge, and delivered again. Down by as much as 25 points, the Lions scored 9.5 in the second half to keep their premiership ambitions alive.
Brisbane will require a four-quarter effort to beat the Swans. Not only do the Swans average the fourth-most shots on goal, they have the fifth-best accuracy in the league at 52.6%. If Brisbane open the game inaccurately, a sharpshooting second half may not be enough against the minor premiers. Therefore, it is vital the Lions continue their strong MCG form in front of goal if they are to be crowned premiers on Saturday.
Brisbane average the most inside 50s of any side this season, averaging 56.7 per game, 3.1 more than their opposition on the weekend. Additionally, the majority of these entries are effective, as seen by their scores per inside 50.
Brisbane have a scoring rate of 51.5% per inside 50 in their last five matches, meaning over half of their inside 50s lead to scores. Therefore, Brisbane's midfield will be crucial in the grand final. With a range of scoring options to choose from, there is little doubt Brisbane will find ways to hit the scoreboard in the decider, so long as the Lions' midfield continues to provide opportunities to work with.
Lachie Neale and Hugh McCluggage both average 4.6 inside 50s per game, whilst Josh Dunkley averages 3.8. Will Ashcroft hasn't missed a beat in his return, averaging 3.7 per game, whilst Cam Rayner and Zac Bailey also average more than three per game as high half-forwards.
Fort can aim to have a similar impact in attack as McInerney too, averaging nearly identical inside 50s from his two games compared to the injured ruckman.
Moreover, Brisbane's inside 50 count will highlight whether the game is being played on their terms. If Sydney are able to negate Brisbane's forward transition or uncontested marking, the Lions could falter at the final hurdle again.
In a stacked midfield group, the clearance battle will be an intriguing watch. Neale is clearly the frontrunner of the group, averaging a near league-best 7.7 clearances per game. Isaac Heeney, the Norm Smith Medal favourite, is next best, averaging 5.9 clearances, despite regularly spending parts of the game across the forward line and wing.
Statistics suggest Brisbane are primed to win the clearance, averaging an AFL-best 40.7 clearances, compared to Sydney's 36.3 (ranked 12th). However, Grundy's matchup on Fort could provide an advantage to the Swans midfield.
Brisbane have yet to lose the clearance count in this year's finals series, whilst the Swans only outdid the Giants through the midfield.
In Brisbane's two-point win over Sydney in Round 19, they won the clearance count 44-34. A likewise outing on Saturday could see the Lions exact revenge over their 2023 grand final heartbreak.
Both sides who can surge forward through counterattacks, scoring off turnover will be critical for Brisbane and Sydney on grand final day.
The Swans lead the AFL in this metric, averaging 56.2 points of turnover, whilst Brisbane are ranked third with an average of 52.3 points per game.
Importantly for Brisbane, Sydney are more prone to losing possession, averaging 66.9 turnovers per game. The Lions average the third-fewest turnovers this season as well with 62.9. Albeit split by just four turnovers overall, it could be the difference in what looms to be a tight grand final contest.