The bye rounds are officially over as all 18 teams return to action this weekend. Five teams sit just a game outside the top four, whilst another four sides remain in touch of the top eight. Evidently, every win is crucial from here on out, so what statistic should your team focus on in Round 16 to secure the premiership points?
Brisbane vs Melbourne – inside 50s
A whooping at the hands of Fremantle, an uncompetitive loss against an undermanned Collingwood, and an unconvincing win against the 18th-placed North Melbourne have left Demon fans with worrying concerns for their club. The Demons, who averaged an AFL-best 58.4 inside 50s in 2023, currently average just 46.8 in their last five appearances.
Travelling to the Gabba to play a red-hot Brisbane side, Melbourne will have to recapture their previous season's form if they are to win on Friday night. The Lions lead the league for inside 50s this year, averaging 58.4. In their current three-game win streak, the Lions have a total inside 50 differential of +47, recording approximately 16 more inside 50s per game than their opposition on average.
If Brisbane continues their current play of attacking football, they'll be on their way to a spot in the top eight following Friday night's result.
North Melbourne vs Western Bulldogs – clearances
Following a win and two single-figure losses, North Melbourne's potential has come to the forefront. In their last five matches, the Kangaroos average the sixth most clearances per game at 40.8. With the potential of a Bontempelli-less Bulldogs this weekend, the Kangaroos have an opportunity to capitalise again in the midfield.
Luke Davies-Uniacke and George Wardlaw have averaged 6.8 and 6.2 clearances per game in their last five appearances, whilst ruckman Tristan Xerri notably averages 6.4.
Yet, the Bulldogs have been a force lately, and are pressing for a top-eight position. Over their last five matches the Bulldogs average the second-most clearances at 42 per game, and are ranked fourth overall this season. Despite the potential for Marcus Bontempelli to miss, Adam Treloar has had an underrated year, averaging 32.2 disposals per game and 6.2 clearances. Tom Liberatore's return has been strong too, averaging an astounding AFL-best 9.5 clearances in his eight games this season. The midfield battle will definitely be the aspect to watch on Saturday afternoon.
Sydney vs Fremantle – uncontested possessions
Holding the second-least amount of Points Against in the competition, the Dockers are a quality defensive unit. Fremantle prevents attacking opportunities from their opponents primarily by maintaining the footy, as seen through their uncontested possession figures. The Dockers average 239.5 uncontested possessions per game, ranked second in the AFL.
If the Dockers are to prevent Sydney's scoring onslaught, they will need to preserve possession to limit counterattacks from the Swans. Sydney averages 61.9% of their scores from turnover, the highest rate in the AFL. In turn, the Swans average the most points per game out of any club.
Earlier this season, the Dockers only recorded nine more uncontested possessions, resulting in a 48-point loss to the Swans in Round 9. Travelling to the SCG to face the now 13-1 Swans will be an even greater challenge, but if they manage to control the tempo of play, there is potential for a shock upset.
Gold Coast vs Collingwood – intercept marks
Despite Gold Coast and Collingwood ranking 16th and 15th for marks inside 50, defensive intercept marks will be important to prevent scores from loose play.
Collingwood averages the third most tackles inside 50, at 12.3 per game, as well as the second-highest rate of scores originating from the forward half. With speedsters Bobby Hill and Beau McCreery, the Magpies have forwards ready to pounce and snag goals from unlikely opportunities.
To prevent dangerous loose play in the defensive 50, Gold Coast's intercepting key defenders will be vital for a rebound victory.
Darcy Moore and Darcy Cameron are both Magpies who averaged more than two intercept marks this season. The Suns are sixth overall for tackles inside 50, so preventing loose play inside 50 should also be a focus for Collingwood heading into this match.
Adelaide vs GWS – clearances
In their last five outings, the Crows have been poor in the clearance count. Averaging just 33 per game since Round 10, the Crows' clearance figures have declined by nearly four on their season average.
Opposingly, the Giants have improved in their last five, averaging nearly three more per game than their season average. Although these performances have recorded just two wins, the Giants sit only a game outside the top four.
Averaging the Giants' most clearances at 6.9, Kieren Briggs' impact will need to be limited by the Crows. Additionally, Finn Callaghan's clearance numbers have been improving across the latest five-game stretch.
For Adelaide, Reilly O'Brien and Matt Crouch's impact will be significant in the outcome, with both averaging fewer clearances since Round 10, compared to their prior season average.
Geelong vs Essendon – marks inside 50
Without Tom Hawkins, Geelong will be reliant on Jeremy Cameron to continue his consistency into the match against Essendon. Cameron averages 2.3 marks inside 50 per game, despite Geelong averaging just 11 as a team in their last five games.
The Cats will also need to limit the Bombers' forward line, which is one of the premier marking units in the competition. The Bombers average 15 marks inside 50 per game in their latest five encounters, ranked second in the competition. Jake Stringer has been at his obliterating best, averaging 2.4 goals since Round 10, along with Kyle Langford averaging 2.8 marks inside 50.
The impact of defenders Tom Stewart and Sam De Koning to mitigate the Essendon forward line will be crucial in a ladder-shaping encounter.
St Kilda vs Port Adelaide – stoppage clearances
In last week's nightmare, Port Adelaide was outdone in stoppage clearances by a ruthless Brisbane midfield. The differential was -18 for the Power, as a 79-point loss stamped questions on their premiership capability.
The last time the Power played the Saints, Port Adelaide triumphed by 10 points in an even clearance battle.
In St Kilda's latest match, also against the Lions, the Saints had just two more stoppage clearances, however, it kept them in the hunt and slimmed the final margin. A mediocre month for St Kilda has them clinging onto their finals chances, but if they can outplay the Power's midfield, they may get their season back on track.
Richmond vs Carlton – inside 50s
Carlton's demolition job of the Cats has proved they are a genuine flag contender in 2024. Recording 33 scoring shots from 58 inside 50s, a repeat effort against a depleted Richmond could be on the cards.
If Richmond are to avoid a heavy defeat, the midfield trio of Shai Bolton, Liam Baker and Tim Taranto will have to step up against a formidable Carlton unit. Each averaging over four inside 50s per game, these Tigers will be vital in inhibiting an onslaught, as well as providing scoring opportunities of their own to the Richmond forward line.
West Coast vs Hawthorn – shots at goal per inside 50 entry
In their last five games, Hawthorn averaged an AFL-best rate of 54.9% for shots at goal per each inside 50 entry, meaning at least one out of two inside 50s results in a shot at goal.
Their high rate of shots on goal has resulted in four consecutive wins, knocking off contenders such as Brisbane and GWS.
West Coast are ranked 13th in this category over their last five games, with a rate of 46.1%. However, in two of their three wins this season (against Richmond and Fremantle), the Eagles have recorded a rate of over 50%. Both of these wins came at Optus Stadium, which is where Round 16's match will take place, providing home-ground confidence for the Eagles. If West Coast can find the scoreboard effectively, they have an opportunity to spoil the Hawthorn fairytale run and their top-eight chances.
