As we reach the pointy end of the season, every game matters more than ever in the chase for an AFL Finals spot. Let's delve into what statistic is key for your club to secure a win this weekend.
Collingwood vs Geelong โ inside 50s
Over the past five matches, Collingwood's attack has been inconsistent, with patches of games flourishing, and other parts stagnated. These dormant sections of possession have caused the opposition to pile on consecutive goals, resulting in a momentary 54-point deficit against North Melbourne, as well as conceding six straight goals to Essendon.
In these last five encounters, Collingwood is ranked 14th for inside 50s, averaging 46.8 per game. However, when Collingwood does get the ball in their forward 50, they are efficient at scoring from these entries. Despite their low inside 50 rankings, the Magpies are fourth for scoring shots inside 50, averaging 49.1 per game.
Geelong's form has been on the improve in their last two matches, largely due to a revitalised midfield. Patrick Dangerfield's return from injury has done wonders for the Cats, as has Tom Stewart's role change. Geelong have accumulated 56 and 63 inside 50s in their latest two wins, a clear improvement against their two prior losses in Round 13 and 15 (49 and 43 inside 50s).
Without Brody Mihocek for the remainder of the season, Collingwood will need the likes of Bobby Hill, Lachie Schultz and the returning Jamie Elliott to lift to overcome a red-hot reimagined Geelong side.
Hawthorn vs Fremantle โ uncontested possessions
Since Round 12, Hawthorn's uncontested possessions per game have increased significantly compared to their season average. Hawthorn average 231 uncontested possessions per game in their latest five-game stretch, compared to 215.9 for the year.
This section of games has included four wins and one loss. The loss came last week against Geelong, where the Hawks were restricted to just 192 uncontested possessions.
Despite comfortably knocking off Richmond and upsetting the ladder-leading Swans, the Dockers are only a slight favourite to beat Hawthorn in Tasmania. Following in Geelong's footsteps, the Dockers should aim to restrict Hawthorn's possession of the ball to record a win on Saturday.
Fremantle have previously been a high-possession team this season, however, their figures have been on a reducing trend, averaging 225 in their last five games, compared to a season average of 237.6. Evidently, it's only been positive for Fremantle's form, meaning preventing Hawthorn's possession will be more important than a high-possession game for themselves.
Sydney vs North Melbourne โ contested possessions
As the recent draft crops in Harry Sheezel, Colby McKercher and George Wardlaw demonstrate their full potential, North Melbourne's contested possession numbers have skyrocketed to a near AFL best. Ranked second in the league, the Kangaroos averaged 141.4 contested possessions across their last five games, resulting in two wins, plus two losses by under a goal.
Sheezel's move up the ground has been instrumental, averaging 1.4 goals across his last five outings, as well as 12 contested possessions per game. Wardlaw and Luke Davies-Uniacke have been midfield bulls, averaging 13.3 and 12.7 contested possessions respectively. Colby McKercher's 37-disposal outing in just his tenth game highlights the talent that the Roos have in their squad.
However, their greatest challenge awaits them at the SCG, coming up against premiership favourites Sydney, who are off two close shock losses. Sydney is the only team ranked ahead of North Melbourne in contested possessions since Round 12, averaging 146.4 per game.
The loss of Isaac Heeney to suspension has been quickly overcome with the return of Callum Mills to the line-up, who averaged over seven contested possessions last year. The Swans midfield is still spearheaded by Errol Gulden and Chad Warner, who are each averaging 8.3 and 9.1 contested possessions respectively.
Despite their contrasting ladder positions, the midfield battle between these two sides will be a blockbuster watch on Saturday.
Western Bulldogs vs Carlton โ clearances
Two potential Brownlow fancies highlight the talent in both Carlton and the Bulldogs midfield, with Patrick Cripps recording consecutive 40 disposal games and averaging 7.88 clearances for the season, and Marcus Bontempelli averaging 6.3 clearances and 1.5 goals per game.
Tom Liberatore hasn't missed a beat either, averaging an AFL-best 8.9 clearances in his ten appearances this year.
Clearances will be vital for both clubs on Saturday to create opportunities for their key forwards. In last year's matchup, the Bulldogs recorded eight more clearances, assisting in a 20-point victory. The Bulldogs' key forwards at the time - Rory Lobb, Jamarra Ugle-Hagan, and Aaron Naughton - all had multiple scoring shots and each kicked at least one goal. Opposingly, Charlie Curnow and Harry McKay were restricted to 2.5 between them, and the Blues only managed 59 points for the match.
Adelaide vs St Kilda โ goalkicking efficiency
In an impressive display, the Saints knocked off ladder-leaders Sydney by two points last weekend. It wouldn't have happened without an accurate goal-kicking performance, as St Kilda made the most of their opportunities, scoring 13.6 (84) against the Swans wasteful 11.16 (82).
St Kilda will be aiming to continue this accuracy however, as over the 2024 season, the Saints have averaged the third-worst goalkicking efficiency at 21.2%.
Adelaide's fairly accurate 13.8 (86) kept them in the hunt against Brisbane last round, falling shy by 11 points. Ranked eighth for goalkicking efficiency, the Crows can either be deadeye in front of goal or wayward, which is indicative of their inconsistent performances this season.
Hence, a strong goalkicking showing from either side will be the key factor to winning this weekend.
Melbourne vs Essendon โ inside 50s
With a season-defining win over Collingwood, Essendon's top four aspirations remain achievable in 2024. The Bombers' ability to create scoring opportunities has been a prominent factor this season, especially in the last few weeks. Essendon averaged 56 inside 50s in their last five matches, ranked fourth in the competition.
Repeat inside 50s provides Essendon's forward line plenty of opportunity, with five Bomber forwards averaging over a goal per game since Round 12. Jake Stringer, Kyle Langford, Matt Guelfi and Peter Wright have all been consistently hitting the scoreboard, as has first-year weapon Nate Caddy.
Contrastingly, Melbourne's inside-50 count has been subpar in their last five outings. Ranked 15th for inside 50s, the Demons average just 46.2 per game. It has led to Bayley Fritsch struggling with form, kept goalless against Fremantle and North Melbourne, as well as Harrison Petty, who has failed to score numerous times this season.
However, a strong display against West Coast last week shows the Demons can still utilise their inside 50s effectively, recording 27 scoring shots from just 49 inside 50s. Still, Melbourne will need to increase their inside 50 entries if they are to overcome a formidable Bombers side.
Gold Coast vs Port Adelaide - shots at goal per inside 50 entry
If Port Adelaide are to continue their winning streak, restricting Gold Coast's effectiveness inside 50 will be key to ending the Suns' undefeated home record.
The Suns recorded 31 scoring shots from 68 inside 50s against Collingwood two weeks ago, however, only recorded 23 from 62 inside 50s against North Melbourne last round. Gold Coast averages 107 points per game from home games this year (excluding Gather Round), however in away matches, where their shots at goal per inside 50 entry are damningly lower, they average just 62.5 points. If Port Adelaide can reduce Gold Coast's ability to score from inside 50 entries they will have a lower Suns score to overcome.
However, Gold Coast can not only take confidence in this week's home-ground advantage but also a leaky Port Adelaide defence. When oppositions have repeat inside 50s against the Power, Port Adelaide is prone to conceding high scores. Against Brisbane the Power conceded 37 scoring shots off of 71 inside 50s, however only allowed 14 scoring shots from the Bulldogs off of 42 inside 50s.
Effectively, if inside 50s are persistent, the floodgates can burst against the Power. Port Adelaide's defence will clearly be a determining factor of Sunday's result, as will the attacking presence of Gold Coast.
Richmond vs GWS - scores off turnover
Richmond will need to take care of the ball on Sunday if they are to cause a boilover against GWS. The Tigers average the second-most turnovers per game in 2024, averaging 69.3.
These turnovers could be costly against the Giants, whose scores originate 47.4% of the time from their forward half. GWS also average the fourth-most tackles per game at 63.3, and the sixth-most tackles inside 50 at 11.4. This defensive pressure could lead to skill errors from Richmond and result in additional turnovers for the Giants to pounce on.
With the likes of Toby Greene and Jesse Hogan lurking in the forward half, forcing turnovers will give the Giants' forwards plenty of space for an uncontested lead at the footy.
West Coast vs Brisbane - marks inside 50
Marks inside 50 should be the key aim for Brisbane this weekend, as Joe Daniher and Eric Hipwood are prepped to continue their flying form. Both players had quieter games against Adelaide, however, averaged over two marks inside 50 each for the season.
West Coast will be hoping to find the right balance of space for Jake Waterman and Oscar Allen, who are close to reaching their full capacity together whilst sharing the forward line. The pair combined for nine marks inside 50 last week against Melbourne, as Allen kicked 4.3 and Waterman 2.1. However, the key forward duo were the only two forwards to deliver last Sunday, as the Eagles were held to just 59 points despite Allen and Waterman's efforts.
With Adam Simpson to watch on in his farewell, a potentially reinvigorated group could share the load with Allen and Waterman, allowing for a more dynamic attack that could upset the Lions and please an onlooking Simpson.
