Season-defining matches highlight a blockbuster Round 19, as just two games separate second and 13th on the AFL ladder. Let's delve into the key statistic for your club's match this weekend, as the top eight looks set to shift once again in 2024.
Essendon vs Adelaide - clearances
After an upset loss to Melbourne, the Bombers will need to respond against Adelaide on Friday night. The Bombers were outplayed in the midfield last Saturday, recording 12 less clearances than Melbourne.
Adelaide will be sure to challenge the Bombers too, ranked second in clearances from their last five matches (39.6 per game). Essendon are ranked 12th since Round 13, but in-form mids Jye Caldwell and Dylan Shiel have been averaging 6.2 and 5.5 clearances respectively.
With their finals position hanging in the balance, winning the clearance battle will be key for Essendon.
GWS vs Gold Coast - scores per inside 50 entry
Despite averaging the second-most inside 50s in the AFL, stats suggest Gold Coast's attack stagnates when playing away from home. In their last clash with GWS in Gather Round, the Suns recorded 14 less inside 50s than GWS, with a rate of 43.6% for scores per inside 50 entry.
In their previous two away games, the Suns attack has been dramatically less dynamic. They recorded just 46 inside 50s and only 15 scoring shots against Fremantle - a rate of 32.6%. Despite recording 62 inside 50s against North Melbourne, Gold Coast only scored 23 times, at a rate of 37.1%.
The Giants contrastingly are a much more effective team at scoring from their inside 50s, ranked eighth in the league at a rate of 45.4%. Following back-to-back 100-point scores, the Giants goalkicking efficiency has been a highlight of their resurgence.
The Giants recorded 28 scoring shots from 60 inside 50s against the Blues a fortnight ago, and stunningly recorded 23 scoring shots from just 36 inside 50s against Richmond.
If Gold Coast are to win away from home this year, an effective day inside 50 will be required to upset the Orange Tsunami.
St Kilda vs West Coast - stoppage clearances
In their last matchup, St Kilda held the advantage in clearances, largely due to their work at the stoppage. The Saints recorded eight more stoppage clearances than the Eagles, assisting in carving out a 14-point victory.
Stoppage clearances are an indicator for St Kilda's success, recording just one less than the Swans in their upset victory, but had seven less than the Crows in their loss last week.
Similarly, the Eagles, ranked 15th this season for stoppage clearances, lost to Melbourne and Brisbane comfortably as they recorded five and seven less stoppage clearances than their opposition.
Hawthorn vs Collingwood - uncontested possessionsย
In their 2023 MCG clash, Hawthorn dominated the uncontested possession count, recording 285 to Collingwood's 198. Limiting the Magpies' dominant ball user Nick Daicos to just five disposals and x-factor Jordan De Goey to just 17, Hawthorn controlled of the tempo of the game.
Collingwood rectified their mistakes in 2024's Gather Round however, limiting Hawthorn to just 187 uncontested possessions. It led to a 38-point halftime deficit that the fast-finishing Hawks just failed to overcome.
Hawthorn could be without Massimo D'Ambrosio this week too, an effective wingman who has been instrumental in Hawthorn's midseason resurgence. Averaging 13.3 uncontested possessions at a disposal efficiency of 77.1%, D'Ambrosio's steadiness across the wing and halfback could be sorely missed in a high-pressure battle.
Fortunately for the Magpies, their best uncontested possession winners are not on their extensive injury list, with the Daicos brothers and John Noble averaging over 15 per game each.
Geelong vs Western Bulldogs - tackles inside 50
Despite a four-point loss to Geelong in Round 4, the Bulldogs recorded 16 tackles inside 50 to keep themselves within the hunt. Within a primarily tall forward group, Rhylee West and Cody Weightman provide consistent pressure as small roving forwards - the two averaging upwards of 1.5 tackles inside 50 per game.
Geelong, whilst ranked 15th for tackles inside 50, boast a smaller side without Tom Hawkins and will therefore be reliant on small forwards Shaun Mannagh, Gary Rohan, and Tyson Stengle to create loose ball scoring opportunities.
Mannagh averages 1.8 tackles inside 50 in his four games this season, ranking him 17th in the AFL. His presence inside 50 will be vital for Geelong to continue their winning streak on Saturday night.
Port Adelaide vs Richmond - marks inside 50
In last week's game against GWS, Richmond allowed 18 marks inside 50 from just 36 entries, resulting in a four-goal loss despite a solid attacking performance themselves.
The last time they faced the Power, Richmond were similarly ripped apart defensively, conceding 17 marks inside 50. Ultimately, it led to a 30-point loss despite the Tigers scoring their season-high score of 92.
In the Power's previous two losses, they recorded just 11 marks inside 50 per game. However, they clunked 18 in their latest win against the Bulldogs, indicating that marks inside 50 is key for the Power's success.
Brisbane vs Sydney - contested possessions
Sunday afternoon may hold a battle of the two best midfields in the game. On a six-game winning streak, the Lions take on the ladder-leading Swans coming off a thrashing victory over North Melbourne.
Sydney boast a midfield of contested bulls, with Isaac Heeney, James Rowbottom and Chad Warner averaging 12, 10.7 and 9.1 contested possessions respectively. However, they'll come up against Lachie Neale, Josh Dunkley and Hugh McCluggage, who average 14.1, 10.9 and 8.7 respectively. It's as even as it gets.
The ruck battle will be another fascinating watch, with Brodie Grundy and Oscar McInerney averaging 12.7 and 10.3 contested possessions each too.
Their 2023 clash saw Brisbane take the premiership points in a 16-point win, where they recorded 29 more contested possessions. A similar performance on Sunday could give the Lions their seventh straight victory and boost their flag credentials to a season-high.
Fremantle vs Melbourne - uncontested possessions
Melbourne fans will be praying for a better outing than their last encounter with Fremantle, which resulted in a staggering 92-point loss. Fremantle smacked Melbourne in every statistical category - clearances, inside 50s and marks most notably - however the precursor was their uncontested possessions.
The Dockers recorded a whopping 301 uncontested possessions and 444 disposals against the Demons, allowing for Caleb Serong, Hayden Young and Andrew Brayshaw to cruise through the midfield, racking up clearances and inside 50s.
At Optus Stadium, where the ground is just as wide as TIO Traegar Park, the Dockers can utilise the space again to create uncontested marking opportunities. Fremantle recorded 142 in Round 12, an increase of 45 on their season average.
Therefore, if Melbourne are to overcome the Dockers this time around, the focus should be on restricting uncontested possessions. Melbourne kept West Coast to just 174 uncontested possessions in Round 17, limiting the Eagles to 49 inside 50s. They did conceded 56, however, when Essendon recorded 258 uncontested possessions in their 17-point loss to the Dees in Round 18.
Carlton vs North Melbourne - defensive one-on-one contests
Whilst Carlton initially looked secure in second on the ladder, their latest two losses have them just a game and percentage from slipping out of the eight. A gaping hole has emerged in Carlton's system, with consecutive games of 100+ points scored against the Blues in the last fortnight, ranking them 15th in the competition for points against.
Despite their worrying defence as a unit, statistics suggest the Blues one-on-one defenders have been at their best in the last five games. Throughout their last five games, the Blues lost just 13.2% of their defensive one-on-one contests, a rate four percent better than next best Geelong.
However, the Blues averaged the second-least defensive one-on-one contests during that time, with just 7.6 per game. If Carlton can produce more one-on-one scenarios for their backline, it will assist players such as Jacob Weitering, who has lost just 4.5% of his one-on-one contests this season - a league-best rate.
Producing one-on-one contests in their own forward line will also be key for Carlton to bounce back on Sunday. North Melbourne average an AFL-worst 33.9% loss rate for defensive one-on-one contests, and despite having a breakout season, revelation Charlie Comben loses 46.4% of his 1v1s.
Therefore, creating space inside 50 for Charlie Curnow and Harry McKay will be vital for Carlton to rebound from their latest two defeats.
