With the AFL season reaching its closing weeks of home and away football, five teams outside the top eight still remain in the hunt for a finals position.
With plenty at stake in Round 20, there is a key statistic for each game that could determine your club's fate and potentially be the determining factor for their finals hopes.
Carlton vs Port Adelaide - inside 50s
The last time these two sides met, the majority of statistical categories were evenly matched, except for inside 50s. Carlton recorded 15 more inside 50s than Port Adelaide in Round 12, resulting in six more scoring shots that coincided with a six-goal victory at Adelaide Oval.
Last week, the Power capitalised on an under-manned Richmond squad, consistently penetrating the arc to accumulate 65 inside 50s. It led to 36 shots on goals and an unstoppable fourth-quarter surge.
On the other hand, Carlton lost the inside 50 count by three to North Melbourne, but a sturdy defensive display restricted the Roos to just 18 scoring shots. However, with a dynamic attack of Mitch Georgiades, Willie Rioli and Charlie Dixon, the Blues cannot be reliant on their defensive unit to save the game in Round 20.
Persistent inside 50s likewise to Round 12 will be the key in boosting Carlton's top four chances on Friday night.
North Melbourne vs Geelong - contested possessions and clearances
In North Melbourne's latest patch of improving form, their talented young guns have been a formidable presence in midfield.
Luke Davies-Uniacke and Tristan Xerri are each averaging approximately 12 contested possessions per game, whilst George Wardlaw and Harry Sheezel are each averaging over nine.
North Melbourne's centre clearance numbers are also the third-best in the competition since Round 15 at 12.8 per game. It's allowed the Kangaroos to find quality targets inside 50, hence their accurate scorecards.
North Melbourne come up against a powerful contested ball-winning team in Geelong, who average 135.9 contested possessions per game, the third-most in the AFL.
Patrick Dangerfield headlines a big-bodied midfield, averaging 10.1 contested possessions per game alongside Tom Atkins, Tanner Bruhn, Brandan Parfitt, and Max Holmes, who each average more than eight.
In their latest encounter, Geelong won the contested possession and clearances count, resulting in a thumping 75-point win. North Melbourne will need to set the tone early if they are to outplay the Cats in the midfield this weekend.
Gold Coast vs Brisbane - scores per inside 50 entry
The Suns have a real problem when it comes to their ball usage inside 50. Across their last five matches, Gold Coast have the worst goals per inside 50 rate of any club at 18.5%. They also hold the second-worst rate for all scores per inside 50 entry at 38.1%.
Hosting Brisbane, a team currently ranked sixth and fourth in those respective categories, the Suns will need to produce another almighty home ground performance to beat a Lions side that has won seven consecutive games.
Both sides average 57.5 inside 50s per game, however the Lions are far more effective at capitalising. If the Lions can match the Suns' midfield, their effectiveness inside 50 will assist them in securing an eighth straight win.
St Kilda vs Essendon - scores off turnover
St Kilda's scoring rate off turnover have been the second-best in the comp these last five weeks, leading to a win against Sydney and a 72-point thrashing of West Coast.
66.8% of St Kilda's scoring has come off turnovers since Round 15, a stark increase from their season average of 49.3%.
Essendon have lost five of their last seven and have been leaky defensively, averaging 97.7 points against from these seven games. The Bombers have also produced an average of 76.3 turnovers from their latest three losses to the Crows, Demons and Cats. If the Bombers continue to cause turnovers again against St Kilda, they will be pounced on by a Saints side ready to impact the shaping of the top eight.
Melbourne vs GWS - contested possessions
The Demons were beaten significantly in the contest against Fremantle last week and will need their talent to stand up to another challenging midfield.
Melbourne recorded 36 less contested possessions than Fremantle, as Clayton Oliver and Trent Rivers struggled to have an impact, recording 18 and 19 disposals each.
The Giants boast contested bulls in Tom Green, Kieren Briggs and Finn Callaghan, who average 13.6, 10.7 and 8.1 contested possessions respectively. With Demons players out of form, the Giants have a prime opportunity to land a huge blow to Melbourne's finals chances in 2024.
Fremantle vs West Coast - inside 50s
In their last meeting, West Coast upset Fremantle with a defensive display that limited Fremantle's inside 50s to just 40 for the match.
Inside 50s are vital for Fremantle, because despite being viewed as a defensive side, their fluent playstyle comes to light when they play fast, attacking football. In Fremantle's latest result against Melbourne, the Dockers recorded 60 inside 50s, resulting in 31 scoring shots. When their attack was compromised against West Coast, they only managed 18.
West Coast too are a better side when their attack is flowing consistently. Held to just 37 inside 50s against St Kilda, the Eagles were unsurprisingly limited to just 11 scoring shots. Their stagnant offence also impacted their ability to defend, with turnovers allowing for St Kilda to counterattack and score at ease.
Evidently, whichever team can get on the front foot offensively will be set up for a Western Derby win in Round 20.
Collingwood vs Richmond - tackles
Collingwood's last five games have demonstrated a decline in tackle pressure, averaging 61.8 per game, a decrease on their season average of 65.7. Collingwood were overwhelmed by Hawthorn's pressure on the ball carrier last week, as the Hawks laid 68 tackles, resulting in Collingwood's disposal efficiency to dip down to a season-low 59.7%.
Richmond, however, average the lowest tackles per game in the league at 49.4. This lack of defensive pressure could provide Collingwood with more time and space to play a composed brand of football. If Richmond are to upset the Pies, and put the nail in the coffin for their season, a high-pressure brand of football needs to be played to swamp Collingwood and impact their disposal efficiency.
Sydney vs Western Bulldogs - uncontested possessions
Sydney are a side that aims to control possession and the tempo of the match, averaging 221.6 uncontested possessions per game. Last weekend however, Brisbane were able to force long kicks down the line from the Swans, leading to Sydney recording their second-fewest inside 50s this season.
If the Bulldogs can replicate this defensive setup, they may have a chance to upset the Swans at the SCG. Rory Lobb's move to defence could once again be impactful if the Bulldogs can force Sydney to kick to contested parts of the ground.
The Bulldogs also play well when maintaining uncontested possession, as shown in their dominant win against Geelong, recording a massive differential of +69. A similar approach could be the key to a season-defining victory on Sunday afternoon.
Adelaide vs Hawthorn - scores from stoppage
Adelaide have been a strong stoppage clearance team all season but recently have been effective in using these clearances to produce scoring opportunities. In their last five games, the Crows have averaged 41.2% of their scores from stoppages, as well as having 50.8% of scores originate in their forward half. This data highlights that when the Crows lock the ball inside 50, they become a dangerous scoring threat.
Hawthorn, whilst not quite to the level of Adelaide, are also a powerful stoppage side. In their last five games, 39.2% of scores have come from stoppage and 45.6% have originated in their forward half.
Ben Keays showed his potential last week against Essendon, as did Jack Ginnivan against his former side. Both forward-half players that lurk around the forward 50 stoppages, their impact on this Sunday's game will be an intriguing watch, in what is presenting as a potential blockbuster match.
