With the top eight positions set to shift again, winning late in the season has never had more at stake. Hawthorn and Melbourne are knocking on the door, whilst Essendon will be desperate to overcome a form slump that has pushed them out of a finals spot.
No win is a given however, so let's take a look at what statistic could be the determining factor for your side to secure the premiership points in Round 21.
Footscray vs Melbourne - clearances
The Western Bulldogs, renamed Footscray for Retro Round, have been on a tear, taking scalps of Carlton, Geelong and Sydney in their latest three wins. Their midfield has been the engine room in this instrumental run of form, with multiple players stepping up to the challenge.
Marcus Bontempelli, despite recording just 20 and 22 disposals against Carlton and Sydney, has still produced an average of 7.3 clearances in Footscray's last three wins. Ed Richards' move to the midfield has been a revelation, averaging career-bests in disposals (21.5 per game), clearances (3.8) and contested possessions (7.9). Of course, there is Tom Liberatore, averaging an AFL-best 8.2 clearances per game, and Rising Star nominee Ryley Sanders contributing too.
If Melbourne are to overcome a rampant Bulldogs side, their midfielders will need to recapture their best form. Clayton Oliver is averaging just 23.6 disposals and 4.4 clearances, down 6.6 and 2.5 respectively compared to his 2023 numbers. Jack Viney and Trent Rivers were solid last week against GWS, but will need to provide more impact against a compelling Footscray midfield group.
With Max Gawn back in the side, Melbourne have every chance to beat Footscray as they did in Round 1, but it will take a greatly improved midfield output to get the job done.
West Coast vs Gold Coast - marks inside 50
The Eagles are more than capable of an upset victory against the Suns on Friday night, with Gold Coast yet to win an away game in 2024.
Although 16th on the AFL ladder, West Coast boast formidable talent in their forward line. Jake Waterman and Oscar Allen headline the group as the key pillars, whilst Liam Ryan and Jamie Cripps are additional targets. However, despite the ability inside 50, the Eagles average just 10.2 marks inside 50 per game, ranked 16th in the AFL.
The Suns are no better either. Ranked 15th, Gold Coast average just 0.4 more marks inside 50 than the Eagles, highlighting their wastage of inside 50 entries. A common theme for the Suns this year, Gold Coast average the second-worst scoring rate from inside 50 entries at 39.9%. When facing Fremantle at Optus Stadium in Round 15, the Suns recorded just ten marks inside 50 from 46 entries, resulting in just 15 scoring shots.
Therefore, if either side is to get on the front foot in this clash, quality inside 50 entries that lead to marks will be vital to hitting the scoreboard and getting the needed result.
North Melbourne vs Richmond - scores from turnover
Richmond average one of the highest turnover rates in the league, at 69.2 turnovers per game. Coming up against a strong contested team in North Melbourne, the Tigers will be corralled by pressure acts at Marvel Stadium this Saturday.
If North Melbourne can force skill errors from Richmond, scoring opportunities will come thick and fast through turnover.
Yet, North Melbourne can struggle to capitalise on turnover opportunities. The Kangaroos are ranked ninth for scores off turnover in their last five games despite playing three high-turnover teams in Gold Coast, Sydney and Geelong, who average the first, second and fifth-most turnovers in the AFL.
Likewise, Richmond will have the opportunity to score from turnover too, as North Melbourne average the sixth-most turnovers at 68.7 per game. However, the Tigers average an AFL-worst 46.2 tackles in their last five outings. If the Tigers are to force errors from the Roos, they'll need to apply more defensive pressure to impact North Melbourne's disposal efficiency.
Geelong vs Adelaide - tackles
Two of the premier tackling sides in the competition, defensive pressure will be key for a win on Saturday. Adelaide should aim to replicate Footscray's efforts at GMHBA Stadium a fortnight ago, a game which saw the Bulldogs record a whopping 86 tackles.
The Crows have the capability too. In their last five games, Adelaide have averaged 72.6 tackles per game, ranked equal-first with GWS. It's resulted in a positive win-loss ratio since Round 16, with wins against GWS and Essendon the most notable.
Geelong, however, have been the best tackling side all season, leading the AFL with an average of 66.4 per game. Earlier this season, Geelong recorded a tackle differential of +9 against the Crows to record a 19-point win in Round 2. A similar performance will likely result in the same outcome for the Cats, who are still in contention for a top-four spot.
Collingwood vs Carlton - contested possessions
In Scott Pendlebury's 400th game, there will be an enormous crowd at the MCG to celebrate the Collingwood legend, bringing a finals-like atmosphere to the game. With every goal to be met with a roar, and skill errors to be met with loud groans, there will be intense pressure on every contest in this match.
Hence, there will be plenty of contested play in a game with both sides desperately clinging onto their finals dreams.ย Patrick Cripps, who has been leading from the front all year, will spearhead Carlton's midfield again, as he averages 15.3 contested possessions per game. Sam Walsh too stands out in this metric, averaging 11.8.
Nick Daicos will also be vital as he continues to stamp his name as a contested bull, averaging 14.3 contested possessions.
A poor July for both sides has each club's seasons on the line heading into a colosseum atmosphere of the MCG. With superstar midfielders on either team, the contested possession count will be significant on Saturday night.
Port Adelaide vs Sydney - intercept marks
Last week Footscray forced Sydney to punt long and high kicks down the line, providing easy intercept marks and spoils for the Bulldogs defence. With key backmen Aliir Aliir, Esava Ratugolea and Brandon Zerk-Thatcher, the Power have the cavalry to bring a similar gameplan against the Swans in Round 21.
Aliir averages 7.5 intercept possessions per game, 3.1 of those being intercept marks. Esava Ratugolea averages 5.6 intercept possessions, including 2.3 intercept marks. These stats are equally as good, if not better, than the averages of Rory Lobb and Liam Jones who dominated Sydney last week.
With some defensive troops potentially available from injury this week, Sydney should also aim to create intercepting opportunities. Dane Rampe will need to pass a fitness test to overcome his calf issue, as does Lewis Melican to recover from a hamstring injury sustained in Round 20. Tom McCartin will be a crucial cog in defence too, averaging 2.9 intercept marks this season, as will Nick Blakey, chalking up 6.5 intercept possessions per game in 2024.
GWS vs Hawthorn - handballs
It's quite an odd statistic to determine the outcome of an AFL game, but GWS and Hawthorn's handball numbers indicate both teams' style of play - fast, overlapping counterattacks.
Ranked first in the league, GWS utilise the handball more than any other club, averaging 165.8 per game. In their last five matches, where the Giants hold a 4-1 record, they average 181.4 handballs, 17.8 more than second-placed Hawthorn.
The Giants' free-flowing "tsunami" attack has boosted them back into top-four contention, with victories over Carlton and Gold Coast in their four-game winning streak particularly highlighting their usage of the handball. Against the Blues and Suns, GWS recorded 202 and 194 handballs respectively.
Hawthorn similarly have utilised the handball to surge their offence forward. In their last five matches, the Hawks average 163.6 handballs per game, 17 more than their season average. Recording handball differentials of +94 and +42 against Collingwood and Adelaide, Hawthorn's offence stampeded to secure consecutive 11-goal wins.
Two similar game plans will be at play on Sunday, and the handball stat will be indicative of whose attack succeeded.
Essendon vs Fremantle - uncontested possessions
St Kilda controlled the tempo from start to finish against the Bombers in Round 20, and it resulted in a telling loss for Essendon's season. Recording a -57 differential in uncontested possessions, Essendon were unable to play on their terms in a heavy defeat.
Coming up against Fremantle, the Bombers may find themselves in a similar scenario against another club that dominates uncontested play. The Dockers are ranked second for uncontested possessions, averaging 236.4 per game, with the likes of Caleb Serong, Andrew Brayshaw and Hayden Young averaging upwards of 15 this season.
However, if Essendon can control the possession themselves, they will be more suited to win. Essendon average the most uncontested possessions in the competition at 237.4 per game. When Essendon have the football, they can control the tempo to their liking, and it has worked for the majority of the season. Yet, when they are unable to utilise this playstyle, they are quickly found out by the opposition and are prone to leaking scores quickly. This was evident against Adelaide, who scored eight unanswered goals and had a late three-goal burst in the fourth quarter of Round 19.
If Fremantle can maintain possession, they'll be able to play to their strengths whilst simultaneously restricting Essendon, presenting an opportunity for a percentage-boosting win. Vice-versa, if Essendon can control possession, they too will negatively impact Fremantle's gameplan and a much-needed win could result.
St Kilda vs Brisbane - goalkicking efficiency
In their latest matchup, St Kilda fell 20 points shy of a win against Brisbane after an accurate last quarter of seven goals and two behinds. Since this performance, St Kilda have switched between sharpshooting and woeful accuracy, with performances of 13.6 and 17.6 against Sydney and Essendon, as well as 8.12 and 5.9 against Port Adelaide and Adelaide respectively.
Brisbane are one of the highest scoring teams in the league, averaging 26.4 scoring shots per game. However, their accuracy has been consistently mediocre, ranked 11th in the AFL for goalkicking efficiency at 23.2%.
Throughout their eight-game winning streak, their scores per inside 50 entry is the third-best out of all clubs at 48.6%, meaning their accuracy has not been a worry yet.
When the kicking boots are on, the Saints can challenge the best. If they can limit simple goalkicking opportunities for Brisbane, it may force an inaccurate display on the Lions' behalf, potentially allowing for another St Kilda upset to a finals-contending team.
