Even with just three weeks left in the AFL season, no team is locked into finals in 2024. 12 teams remain in contention, but elimination final-esque fixtures this weekend could spell the end of a couple of clubs' aspirations.
Let's dive into what statistic could keep your team's season alive or end its run for September action.
Sydney vs Collingwood - scores per inside 50 entry
Sydney's rapid descent hit a new low against Port Adelaide on Saturday night in a thumping 112-point defeat. The Swans scored just 11 times from 34 inside 50s, a rate of just 32.4%. This percentage is 5.2% worse than 18th-ranked North Melbourne's season average, and a whopping 15.8% worse than Sydney's own season average. However, this decline hasn't just come against the Power. Sydney have averaged a rate of 44.9% over their last five games, ranked tenth.
Contrastingly, Sydney play one of the most efficient forward 50 sides of the last five weeks in Collingwood. Since Round 16, Collingwood have averaged a scoring rate of 49.1% per inside 50, ranked second in the AFL.
If Sydney are to get back on the winners list this Friday, they'll have to recapture their attacking best and improve significantly on quality inside 50 entries.
Brisbane vs GWS - scores from stoppage
Since Round 16, Brisbane and GWS have been two of the premier scoring sides from stoppage situations. The Giants are ranked second, averaging 42.4% of their scores from stoppage, whilst the Lions are ranked fourth at a rate of 37.8%.
In an enthralling comeback victory, the match-winning goal came from Giant Tom Green, perfectly highlighting the Giants' midfield power. Brent Daniels' last quarter was damaging too, recording a breakaway clearance and two inside 50s, as well as snagging a crucial goal.
Brisbane's midfield is equally stacked however. In competition-best form, the Lions midfield feasted yet again versus St Kilda, with Lachie Neale and Hugh McCluggage recording 13 and nine clearances respectively.
It will be a battle of the midfielders this weekend, in a high-stakes match that could determine a top-four finish for either side.
North Melbourne vs West Coast - marks
North Melbourne utilised an uncontested marking playstyle to cut through the Richmond defence last weekend in their 13-point win. Recording almost double the amount of Tiger marks, North Melbourne tallied 128 in their victory, just 13 of which were contested.
However, in their three matches to date at Blundstone Arena, the Kangaroos have recorded differentials of -34, -4 and -23 in marking, resulting in three heavy defeats.
The last time these two clubs met, North Melbourne edged out West Coast in marking by just seven in a nine-point victory. If West Coast are to overcome a much-improved Kangaroos outfit, they'll need to restrict North Melbourne's ability to chip the ball forward this time around.
Fremantle vs Geelong - stoppage clearances
Geelong needs to force Fremantle to play on their terms to cause a boilover this weekend, primarily through contested football. Geelong have turned into one of the best contested sides in the league this season, averaging the most hard ball gets, ground ball gets, and second-most contested possessions per game.
Contrastingly, Fremantle play a free-flowing brand of footy, averaging the second-most uncontested possessions and most handball receives.
Hence, a high-stoppage game will work in Geelong's favour. Geelong are ranked second in stoppage clearances from their last five encounters as well, with Patrick Dangerfield averaging 3.6 per game.
Fremantle are still a threat in the midfield though. Despite being ranked sixth from their last five games, Fremantle are the number two side overall for stoppage clearances in 2024. The Dockers average 27.8 per game, as Caleb Serong and Andrew Brayshaw average four and 3.6 respectively.
Essendon vs Gold Coast - scores per inside 50 entry
A glaring theme of Gold Coast this season, scoring from inside 50 entries has been inefficient from the Suns. In a damning tenth-straight loss away from home, the Suns scored at a rate of just 42.3% per inside 50 against West Coast.
Essendon seemed to reclaim their edge against Fremantle last Sunday, as they piled on eight scoring shots in the last quarter from just 17 inside 50s, a rate of 47.1%. However, in their loss to St Kilda just a week prior, the Bombers only recorded 13 scoring shots from 46 inside 50s.
Evidently, an Essendon or Gold Coast win relies on their efficiency inside 50. Gold Coast have yet to capture strong attacking form away from People First Stadium, but the Bombers have been negated at home before.
An intriguing encounter awaits.
Melbourne vs Port Adelaide - inside 50s
Port Adelaide's stunning smashing of Sydney demonstrated the Power's key to success - merciless attacking football. The Power recorded over 20 inside 50s before Sydney had even registered a score, as forwards lapped up silver-platter service from the midfield and half-backs.
Ranked number one for inside 50s in their last five games, Port Adelaide average 59.4, four more than their season average. It's led to four wins from these past five matches at an average margin of 53.8 points.
Opposingly, Melbourne sit in the bottom four for inside 50s, with just 46.6 per game since Round 16. Last time the two sides met, the Demons scraped by because of an incredible defensive effort, limiting Port Adelaide to 89 points despite 66 inside 50s. Additionally, the Demons were extremely efficient inside 50, kicking 15.6 from just 45 entries.
Without key pillar Steven May this weekend though, the Demons cannot afford to allow this many inside 50s again, and therefore will need to produce a greater offensive performance.
Carlton vs Hawthorn - contested possessions
There is plenty on the line for the Carlton-Hawthorn clash. A loss for the Hawks effectively ends their fairytale run, whilst a Blues defeat could dump Carlton from the top eight for the first time since Round 10.
Both teams come off heartbreaking, single-figure losses, and the hunger to win will be as high as ever. This game is expected to be fought tooth and nail, meaning winning contested possession will be key.
The two midfields match-up evenly, with Patrick Cripps, Sam Walsh and George Hewett headlining the Blues, whilst Jai Newcombe, Will Day and James Worpel are the hard nuts for the Hawks.
Statistically, Carlton are the superior contested side, leading the league with an average of 139.6 per game. Hawthorn are ranked 12th overall, but Newcombe and Worpel's averages are in the top 30 of all players in the AFL.
Shaping as an early elimination final, winning contested possessions will be a matter of who wants it more on Sunday.
Richmond vs St Kilda - goalkicking efficiency
Richmond's goalkicking cost them a win against North Melbourne in Round 21, scoring a woeful 10.17. It was the difference maker, as an accurate Roos side who accumulated 16 fewer inside 50s and seven fewer scores took home the premiership points.
St Kilda were blown away by Brisbane and never looked like winning, as an inaccurate 5.9 added more misery to their loss. St Kilda have been inconsistent with their goalkicking this season, with performances of 13.6 and 17.6 against Sydney and Essendon the highlights, but 8.16 and 8.12 against Hawthorn and Port Adelaide the lows.
Both teams have the capability to respond after last week's losses, however their desire will only result in a win if they can convert on the scoreboard.
Adelaide vs Western Bulldogs - marks inside 50
The Bulldogs' key forwards ran riot over Melbourne's defence last week, Jamarra Ugle-Hagan recording five marks inside 50 and kicking 2.6, Aaron Naughton following suit with four marks inside 50 and two majors.
Their marks came from quality entries, with Marcus Bontempelli racking up nine inside 50s and 16 score involvements for the match.
The Crows were up for the challenge against Geelong, and certainly can hold their weight against an in-form Bulldogs unit. With a rejuvenated Riley Thilthorpe, as well as Josh Rachele and Taylor Walker, Adelaide still have a potent forward line that can compete. The three aforementioned players combined for eight of Adelaide's ten marks inside 50 last week.
Last time the Bulldogs travelled to Adelaide Oval, the Power held the Bulldogs to just seven marks inside 50, with Ugle-Hagan and Sam Darcy held goalless. A similar effort from the Crows could potentially land Adelaide an all-time upset in Round 22.
