The final weekend of home and away football is upon us, with four teams still vying for a chance to play in September.
Almost every game could shape the eight in Round 24, so what statistic is the key for your club to ensure a win in the closing weekend of AFL action?
Melbourne vs Collingwood - marks inside 50
Despite the Pies and Demons being ranked 12th and 13th respectively for marks inside 50, it was the key for both sides to win in Round 23. Melbourne doubled Gold Coast's marks in their forward zone with 16, whilst Collingwood recorded three more than their season average with 14.
Lachie Schultz was instrumental for Collingwood, with two marks inside 50 that produced two goals while he ended the day with seven score involvements.
Likewise for Melbourne, their key forward trio in Daniel Turner, Harrison Petty and Jacob van Rooyen finally maximised their potential with eight marks inside 50 to add to their ten combined goals.
Last time they played, the Demons only out-marked Collingwood inside 50 by one, but their wasteful goalkicking never gave them a look. With increased accuracy, another strong marking performance could give Melbourne a victorious finish to their season.
Geelong vs West Coast - tackles
Geelong are one of the best pressure sides in the league, averaging the second-most tackles per game (65.3) and the most pressure acts (310.9).
However, last weekend the Cats were outtackled by a fearless St Kilda outfit that trounced Geelong in the second half, recording just 50 tackles to the Saints' 64.
If the Eagles are to compete at Kardinia Park, they'll have to amplify the pressure they've produced throughout the season. West Coast are ranked 16th for tackles (56.3) and 11th for pressure acts (290.3). With nothing to lose, this is a prime opportunity for the Eagles to replicate St Kilda's efforts and startle a Geelong outfit waltzing into September action.
Richmond vs Gold Coast - centre clearances
In their Opening Round matchup, Gold Coast dominated the Tigers in the clearance, particularly in the centre square. The Suns recorded 18 centre clearances to Richmond's eight, which enabled an astonishing 61 inside 50s and 29 scoring shots.
Matt Rowell produced 20 clearances in the Opening Round clash, a near record-breaking stint, and will need to be guarded closely this weekend. Tim Taranto and Dion Prestia will be key for Richmond's midfield, averaging 5.7 and 4.3 clearances respectively.
Hawthorn vs North Melbourne - uncontested possessions
In their Round 6 fixture, North Melbourne beat or matched Hawthorn across key contested ball-winning areas, winning the clearance count for the game, and had a contested possession differential of just -12.
However, Hawthorn still rampaged over the Roos with their uncontested chains of possession, resulting in 11 more inside 50s and 51 more uncontested possessions.
Despite Tristan Xerri and Luke Davies-Uniacke dominating the inside midfield work, North Melbourne will need outside midfielders and wingers to step up against the Hawks this weekend. George Wardlaw, Colby McKercher, and Zac Fisher have the capability to break lines across all areas of the ground, however missing Harry Sheezel with an ankle injury remains a big loss.
For Hawthorn, Massimo D'Ambrosio and Dylan Moore are two players in All-Australian form who lap up the opportunity to counterattack, averaging 14.4 and 13 uncontested possessions respectively. Major contributions from them will keep Hawthorn on track for a stunning return to finals action.
Brisbane vs Essendon - scores per inside 50 entry
Brisbane and Essendon average near identical inside 50s per game, with a difference of just 0.7 between them. Yet, Essendon average just 24.7 shots at goal compared to Brisbane's 28.2, a large discrepancy from such a small difference in opportunity.
Essendon have lost eight games this year despite winning the inside 50 metric. However, the Bombers have the third-worst rate of scores per inside 50 in the league at just 40.8%, evidently demonstrating why these losses have occurred. Brisbane on the other hand boast a rate of 49.7%, ranked sixth in the AFL.
If Essendon are to end their season on a high note, they'll need to improve their efficiency heading inside 50 to provide opportunities for their forward mix, as a firing Brisbane attack won't allow a Bombers win with wasteful entries.
Sydney vs Adelaide - clearances
Last time Sydney and Adelaide met, the Swans dominated the middle of the ground, recording 21 more clearances than the Crows. Their midfield superiority assisted in accumulating 61 inside 50s whilst restricting the Crows to just 35.
Errol Gulden and Isaac Heeney were prolific, tallying 35 and 29 disposals each, as Brodie Grundy owned the ruck with 49 hitouts.
With no Izak Rankine due to concussion, the Crows will need Rory Laird and Matt Crouch to step up in the contest against Sydney. Laird managed five clearances versus Sydney in Round 14, a team-high, but it was stark in comparison to Gulden, Heeney and Grundy who combined for 30.
Western Bulldogs vs GWS - uncontested possessionsย
With two sides that love to run overlapping counterattacks, uncontested possessions will be the key statistic to watch for the Bulldogs-Giants clash. Ranked third in the league for uncontested possessions, the Bulldogs breezed through North Melbourne last week, recording 272 in their 96-point smashing.
The Giants similarly outplayed Fremantle, recording 229 uncontested possessions. Crucially, GWS also restricted Fremantle to just 191, down 45 on their season average.
If GWS can negate the Bulldogs from playing their brand of free-flowing football, the Giants could lock in a home qualifying final and potentially end the Bulldogs' season. Opposingly, the Bulldogs could snare a home final for themselves if they dominate possession.
Carlton vs St Kilda - marks inside 50
Despite missing Harry McKay and Charlie Curnow, the Blues managed to find new targets inside 50 to belt the Eagles in Perth. The Blues recorded 15 marks inside 50, as Brodie Kemp and Matthew Owies dominated the scoreboard.
Similarly, the Saints were also damaging with their inside 50 entries. St Kilda chalked up 20 marks inside 50 against Geelong, with Jack Higgins and Jack Steele notably combining for five goals from seven marks inside 50.
Both sides will lack their star forwards in McKay, Curnow, and Max King on Sunday, meaning last week's goalsneaks will need to be utilised again. St Kilda have thrived under playing as "the Grinch" in shaping the top eight, as Carlton's finals hopes hang by a thread. To avoid a potential heartbreaking miss of finals, the Blues will need to continue their efficiency inside 50 of Round 23 against the Saints.
Fremantle vs Port Adelaide - clearances
In a do-or-die clash for Fremantle, they come up against a midfield of equal firepower.
The Dockers gave away a nine-point lead in the dying minutes of action the last time they faced off, discarding a strong midfield performance that recorded nine more clearances than Port Adelaide.
The Power have only improved their midfield since then, as they notched up 14 more clearances than their crosstown rivals last weekend. A powerful combination of Zak Butters, Jason Horne-Francis, Connor Rozee and Ollie Wines amassed 34 clearances.
The Dockers boast Caleb Serong and Andrew Brayshaw however. Serong is ranked third in the AFL for clearances, averaging 7.7 per game, whilst Brayshaw averages 5.2.
Even if external results fall in their favour, Fremantle still have to win on Sunday to make finals. If they can outplay the Power in midfield, it will be the crucial step to record a winning result.
