It's the penultimate weekend of football, with four teams left to duke it out for a spot in the AFL Grand Final.
It's win-or-go-home, meaning on-ball pressure will be at an all-time high. It's the final hurdle to earn a grand final berth, and whichever side can remain composed will be primed for a feature in the final Saturday of September.
So, let's dive into the statistics that matter most for Sydney, Port Adelaide, Geelong, and Brisbane, in order to achieve a shot at premiership glory.
Sydney vs Port Adelaide
Sydney - scores from stoppage
Whilst Sydney are easily the AFL's leading club from scores off turnover, the Swans should intend to surpass the Power with scores from stoppage situations.
The Swans looked cooked against GWS in the qualifying final, but a burst of acceleration from Isaac Heeney, as well as a seven-clearance final quarter from Chad Warner rendered their deficit imaginary, as the Swans prevailed by six points.
Heeney too recorded seven clearances for the game, whilst Brodie Grundy and Errol Gulden combined for 11.
The Swans ultimately found midfield success around the ground, recording 37 stoppage clearances to the Giants' 30 - 16 of those were recorded in the last term.
The Swans were unleashed from these final-quarter stoppage clearances, recording ten scoring shots from just 16 inside 50s. It's a scoring rate of 62.5% per inside 50, 14% better than their season average.
Overall, Sydney are a premier scoring side from stoppage situations. They average 38.5 points from stoppages per game, ranked second in the AFL.
Hence, they have the ability to quash the Power, who rely heavily on the performance of their midfield. Should Sydney dominate the clearance count, not only will scoring come as freely as it did against GWS, but it will also indirectly impact Port Adelaide's influence on the contest. Against Geelong in the qualifying final, the Power recorded nine less stoppage clearances in an 84-point annihilation.
The Swans famously lost by 112 points to the Power in their last meeting, and a lack of scoring from stoppage was one of many factors that harmed Sydney's performance. The Swans recorded just 20 stoppage clearances, nine less than the Power.
The Swans scores from stoppage differential against the Power, -49, was also the second-worst result in that metric since John Longmire's tenure began. However, since Round 21, the Swans average 36.5 points from stoppage, just two less than their season average, highlighting that the late-season rough patch may now be a distant memory.
Port Adelaide - pressure acts
The Power corralled Hawthorn all night long in last week's semi-final, never allowing an inch of space or second of freedom. Their hunt on the ball-carrier was as relentless as any team has produced all year, clearly demonstrating their hunger for a flag.
The midfield unit were key exponents of this pressure, with Connor Rozee recording a game-high 33 pressure acts to accompany his nine tackles. Ollie Wines had 26 pressure acts alongside his game-high ten tackles, whilst ruckman Jordon Sweet had 24.
On Friday, the Power recorded a total of 315 pressure acts, which is not only a dramatic increase of 22.7 compared to their season average, but is also still nine more than Collingwood's league-leading season average of 306.
However, this wasn't a blip on the radar effort from Port Adelaide. Across their last five matches, Port Adelaide's pressure has been the best in the AFL, with an average of 307.2 pressure acts since Round 22.
The Power's forwards were also lively and dangerous, with and without the football. Willie Rioli, Darcy Byrne-Jones, and Jackson Mead harassed Hawthorn relentlessly, the latter recording 26 pressure acts for the game, whilst Rioli and Byrne-Jones had 14 each.
This pressure translated into scoring opportunities, as Rioli and Byrne-Jones both tallied two goals each, with the former Eagle leading the Power for score involvements too.
The Power's forward 50 pressure was elite in their latest fixture with Sydney, recording ten tackles inside 50 in their 112-point drubbing.
Seemingly adapted to the finals atmosphere now, another corralling display against the Swans could provide the Power with an unlikely grand final berth.
Geelong vs Brisbane
Geelong - clearances and scores from stoppage
The Cats midfield is peaking at the right time.
Geelong are ranked first for scores from stoppage in their last five games, and by a considerable margin, as the Cats average 56.8 points from stoppage alone since Round 21. Compared to the next best, Hawthorn averaged 48.6, followed up by GWS who averaged 39.6 per game. Evidently, Geelong's stoppage work has reached season-high output.
Against Port Adelaide in the qualifying final, their midfield's form was apparent. The Cats amassed 29 stoppage clearances, which led to open options inside 50 for easy hit-up marks. After what was a non-stop attack in the second half, Geelong had produced 22 marks inside 50 for the game, scoring 38 times from just 57 inside 50s.
From their last five matches, Geelong average the third-most clearances in the AFL, at an average of 41.8. However, out of the remaining teams in September, Geelong are ranked first, albeit barely split by 0.4 over the Lions.
Importantly, the Cats had a variety of players step up around the stoppage. Despite recording 40 clearances for the game, the highest individual clearance-accumulators for Geelong were Rhys Stanley and Tom Atkins with five. Geelong had ten players record multiple clearances however, compared to just seven for Port Adelaide.
Coming up against a formidable clearance side in Brisbane, keeping fresh legs in the midfield could work in Geelong's favour on Saturday night. Having the cavalry to rotate through the contest could alleviate the pressure on stars Max Holmes and Patrick Dangerfield, affording them less physical contests that could pay dividends in the exhaustive final minutes of action.
Brisbane - goalkicking accuracy
If it wasn't for a sudden improvement in goalkicking, Brisbane wouldn't be here this week. The Lions had kicked 4.10 at halftime, and were 4.12 when they faced the largest deficit of the match against GWS.
The Lions then kicked 11.2 to surge back into the contest, with two tight-angled drop punts from Joe Daniher securing an unbelievable come-from-behind victory.
It's been said across these articles all year that Brisbane's transition and attack is one of the best in the competition. The Lions average the most inside 50s with 56.9 per game and have a scoring rate of 47% per inside 50; ranked fourth. However, in multiple home and away games this year, and almost again in the semi-final last week, Brisbane's goalkicking has been costly.
The Lions goalkicking percentage is ranked 15th in the league at 46.6%. The only teams worse are Richmond, West Coast, and another preliminary final participant, Port Adelaide.
The Lions have overcome their MCG struggles however, and from their two matches this season they've kicked a combined 23 goals and 22 behinds. A similar performance to these previous two outings in Victoria will boost Brisbane's odds well into their favour.
