AFL Teams

Three current top eight teams fall out of finals race as surprise club goes undefeated in home stretch: AFL ladder predictor

We’ve gone over each club’s run home to see who makes the finals and who misses the cut.

Published by
Mitch Keating

With the bye rounds now behind us and the home stretch in our sights, we've gone through each club's run to September and formed our 2024 AFL ladder prediction ahead of the final nine rounds of the season.

Our end-of-year standings could see one club - who isn't the currently favoured Swans - go undefeated from here on out, while three clubs currently residing in the top eight could miss out on finals altogether.

The competition currently has a second-placed Carlton outfit just eight points ahead of Melbourne, who sit outside the finals frame in ninth - making for an eventful and enticing run home for fans.

The Swans have one hand on the minor premiership, with the other seven finals spots potentially falling to all but three other clubs before the end of the year.

Currently on a 10-game winning streak, our predictor suggests that run will eventually snap for the Swans, with a trip north to face Brisbane in Round 19 perhaps the most likely avenue for a loss for the flag favourites.

But just one error in their run home should see John Longmire's side claim the minor premiership and host a qualifying final at the SCG.

The Lions, currently undefeated since from their past three matches, could very well go without a loss from here on out, with their clash with the Swans in Queensland and an MCG bout with Collingwood their biggest tests.

BRISBANE, AUSTRALIA - MARCH 20: Errol Gulden of the Swans celebrates after kicking a goal during the round one AFL match between the Brisbane Lions and the Sydney Swans at The Gabba on March 20, 2021 in Brisbane, Australia. (Photo by Bradley Kanaris/Getty Images)

Brisbane look to be one of the biggest risers in the home stretch, potentially jumping from 10th on the ladder into the top four by the end of the season, while Hawthorn could outdo them as a potential top five outfit.

Of the sides currently in the finals picture, Geelong, Fremantle and Port Adelaide could make way for the Lions, Hawks and Demons, who are well in the hunt with nine rounds to go.

Several sides in the running for September will bank on favourable fixtures in their home stretch, with Essendon not leaving Melbourne until their final game of the season while St Kilda have eight of their last nine matches at Marvel Stadium.

Following their Round 16 matchup on the Gold Coast this week, Collingwood will play seven of the remaining eight games at the MCG - with a trip to Sydney to face the Swans in Round 22 falling in the middle of that patch.

The bottom of the league is set to be a tight fight also, with North Melbourne's improvement over the past month potentially seeing the Roos lift off the foot of the ladder and hand Richmond their first wooden spoon since 2007.

MELBOURNE, AUSTRALIA - JULY 16: Jy Simpkin and Luke Davies-Uniacke of the Kangaroos (R) celebrate a goal during the round 18 AFL match between the North Melbourne Kangaroos and the Richmond Tigers at Marvel Stadium on July 16, 2022 in Melbourne, Australia. (Photo by Daniel Pockett/Getty Images)

Percentage could be all that separates the two sides on the 17th and 18th rungs, while West Coast too could be right in the mix for the wooden spoon.

The week one finals matchups could very well see Essendon head to Sydney in a qualifying final, with Carlton hosting Brisbane in the corresponding draw after facing off in September last year.

The elimination finals could be between Hawthorn and Melbourne at the MCG, with GWS to host Collingwood in Sydney's west in what would be a rematch of last year's preliminary final thriller.

Here's our ladder predictor for the remainder of the 2024 AFL season.

1st. Sydney

Current Record: 13-1
Run Home: FREO (H), STK (A), NM (H), BRIS (A), WB (H), PORT (A), COLL (H), ESS (A), ADEL (H)
Predicted Record: 21-2
Estimated Percentage: 137.6%

2nd. Carlton

Current Record: 10-4
Run Home: RICH (A), GWS (A), WB (A), NM (H), PORT (H), COLL (A), HAW (H), WCE (A), STK (H)
Predicted Record: 19-4
Estimated Percentage: 116.9%

3rd. Brisbane

Current Record: 7-1-6
Run Home: MELB (H), ADEL (H), WCE (A), SYD (H), GC (A), STK (A), GWS (H), COLL (A), ESS (H)
Predicted Record: 16-1-6
Estimated Percentage: 121.5%

4th. Essendon

Current Record: 9-1-4
Run Home: GEEL (A), COLL (A), MELB (H), ADEL (H), STK (A), FREO (H), GC (H), SYD (H), BRIS (A)
Predicted Record: 16-1-6
Estimated Percentage: 106.0%

5th. Hawthorn

Current Record: 7-7
Run Home: WCE (A), GEEL (A), FREO (H), COLL (H), ADEL (A), GWS (A), CARL (A), RICH (H), NM (H)
Predicted Record: 14-9
Estimated Percentage: 97.5%

6th. GWS

Current Record: 8-6
Run Home: ADEL (A), CARL (H), RICH (A), GC (H), MELB (A), HAW (H), BRIS (A), FREO (H), WB (A)
Predicted Record: 13-10
Estimated Percentage: 107.7%

7th. Collingwood

Current Record: 8-2-4
Run Home: GC (A), ESS (H), GEEL (H), HAW (A), RICH (H), CARL (H), SYD (A), BRIS (H), MELB (A)
Predicted Record: 12-2-9
Estimated Percentage: 102.9%

8th. Melbourne

Current Record: 8-6
Run Home: BRIS (A), WCE (H), ESS (H), FREO (A), GWS (H), WB (A), PORT (H), GC (A), COLL (H)
Predicted Record: 13-10
Estimated Percentage: 100.0%

9th. Western Bulldogs

Current Record: 7-7
Run Home:
NM (A), PORT (A), CARL (H), GEEL (A), SYD (A), MELB (H), ADEL (A), NM (H), GWS (H)
Predicted Record:
12-11
Estimated Percentage: 
112.6%

10th. Geelong

Current Record: 8-6
Run Home: ESS (H), HAW (H), COLL (A), WB (H), NM (A), ADEL (H), FREO (A), STK (A), WCE (H)
Predicted Record: 12-11
Estimated Percentage: 102.1%

11th. Port Adelaide

Current Record: 8-6
Run Home: STK (A), WB (H), GC (A), RICH (H), CARL (A), SYD (H), MELB (H), ADEL (H), FREO (A)
Predicted Record: 12-11
Estimated Percentage: 99.3%

12th. Fremantle

Current Record: 8-1-5
Run Home: SYD (A), RICH (H), HAW (A), MELB (H), WCE (H), ESS (A), GEEL (H), GWS (A), PORT (H)
Predicted Record: 11-1-11
Estimated Percentage: 104.1%

13th. Gold Coast

Current Record: 7-7
Run Home: COLL (H), NM (A), PORT (H), GWS (A), BRIS (H), WCE (A), ESS (A), MELB (H), RICH (A)
Predicted Record: 9-14
Estimated Percentage: 99.4%

14th St Kilda

Current Record: 5-9
Run Home: PORT (H), SYD (H), ADEL (A), WCE (H), ESS (H), BRIS (H), RICH (A), GEEL (H), CARL (A)
Predicted Record: 8-15
Estimated Percentage: 93.5%

15th. Adelaide

Current Record: 4-1-9
Run Home: GWS (H), BRIS (A), STK (H), ESS (A), HAW (H), GEEL (A), WB (H), PORT (A), SYD (A)
Predicted Record: 6-1-16
Estimated Percentage: 97.0%

16th. West Coast

Current Record: 3-11
Run Home: HAW (H), MELB (A), BRIS (H), STK (A), FREO (A), GC (H), NM (A), CARL (H), GEEL (A)
Predicted Record: 4-19
Estimated Percentage: 77.7%

17th. Richmond

Current Record: 2-12
Run Home: CARL (H), FREO (A), GWS (H), PORT (A), COLL (A), NM (A), STK (H), HAW (A), GC (H)
Predicted Record: 3-20
Estimated Percentage: 73.0%

18th. North Melbourne

Current Record: 1-13
Run Home: WB (H), GC (H), SYD (A), CARL (A), GEEL (H), RICH (H), WCE (H), WB (A), HAW (A)
Predicted Record: 3-20
Estimated Percentage: 71.9%

Published by
Mitch Keating