Two clubs undefeated, early glance at finals contenders: What the AFL ladder might look like after Round 4

With the first game of the 2024 AFL season just days away, we've inspected the opening rounds of the new campaign to see who the fast, and slow, starters might be this year.

Predicting results up until the cessation of Round 4 looks a little different this year, with Opening Round leading to some clubs having played five games after the opening month.

While this will skew the ladder, fans will still get a sense of how their club is travelling early nonetheless.

Here's how we see the first five rounds panning out for each club, with a full ladder order listed below.

Adelaide

Opening Round: Bye
Round 1: Gold Coast (A)
Round 2: Geelong (H)
Round 3: Fremantle (A)
Round 4: Melbourne (H)

Estimated Record: 3-1
Estimated Percentage: 110.3
Ladder Position: 7th

The Crows face just one finalist from last year in their opening four games of the season - a meeting with Melbourne to open Gather Round.

They'll have another home game prior in Round 2 against Geelong which will prove to be a solid contest, with a winning record likely to see the South Australians just inside the top eight after the first month of the home and away season.

Brisbane

Opening Round: Carlton (H)
Round 1: Fremantle (A)
Round 2: Bye
Round 3: Collingwood (H)
Round 4: North Melbourne (H)

Estimated Record: 4-0
Estimated Percentage: 131.0
Ladder Position: 1st

The Lions are one of two clubs still undefeated at the end of Round 4, meaning big wins over fellow contenders Carlton and Collingwood are to come in what would be a nice early boost for Brisbane.

Those two matches come on their home deck, a venue they weren't beaten on for the entirety of last year.

An away trip to Fremantle for Round 1 is very winnable and is technically their only away game given they 'host' North Melbourne for Gather Round.

Carlton

Opening Round: Brisbane (A)
Round 1: Richmond (H)
Round 2: Bye
Round 3: North Melbourne (A)
Round 4: Fremantle (A)

Estimated Record: 3-1
Estimated Percentage: 125.8
Ladder Position: 6th

Carlton's season opener against Brisbane is their big test for the opening month of the season, with a win up in Queensland the perfect start.

We don't see that being the case here, but the Blues should pick up victories against Richmond, North Melbourne and Fremantle - especially given the latter is in Adelaide and not Perth.

A Round 2 bye could also be a nice chance to resettle and potentially get some injured players back ahead of Good Friday vs the Roos.

Collingwood

Opening Round: GWS (A)
Round 1: Sydney (H)
Round 2: St Kilda (A)
Round 3: Brisbane (A)
Round 4: Hawthorn (H)

Estimated Record: 4-1
Estimated Percentage: 112.6
Ladder Position: 4th

One of the four clubs who will play five games by the end of Round 4, the Magpies have one of the hardest starts to the season across the competition.

Away games to GWS and Brisbane will be a challenge, but expect the reigning primers to come away with at least one win on the road.

They technically get just one home game in their opening five matches too, given Round 4 will see them host the Hawks at Adelaide Oval for Gather Round.

Essendon

Opening Round: Bye
Round 1: Hawthorn (H)
Round 2: Sydney (A)
Round 3: St Kilda (H)
Round 4: Port Adelaide (A)

Estimated Record: 1-3
Estimated Percentage: 87.6
Ladder Position: 15th

We're expecting the Bombers to get their season off on the right foot with a win against rivals Hawthorn, but it's no cakewalk from there as they come up against thre 2023 finalists.

A trip to Sydney hasn't been easy for Essendon in recent years, while facing Port Adelaide for Gather Round is a tough test. The clash back home against the Saints is very winnable and could shape whether their opening month is a positive start or not.

Fremantle

Opening Round: Bye
Round 1: Brisbane (H)
Round 2: North Melbourne (A)
Round 3: Adelaide (H)
Round 4: Carlton (H)

Estimated Record: 1-3
Estimated Percentage: 90.5
Ladder Position: 13th

The Dockers have two home games and a neutral clash with Carlton for Gather Round to be scheduled just the one 'away game'.

That away game is winnable, coming up against the Kangaroos at Marvel Stadium, but their pair of home matches are looming tests as Brisbane and Adelaide come to town.

It might be a slow start for Justin Longmuir's men, with pressure likely to rise quickly for the Dockers coach.

Geelong

Opening Round: Bye
Round 1: St Kilda (H)
Round 2: Adelaide (A)
Round 3: Hawthorn (A)
Round 4: Western Bulldogs (A)

Estimated Record: 3-1
Estimated Percentage: 100.6
Ladder Position: 9th

Following their Round 1 meeting with St Kilda at Kardinia Park, the Cats have a trio of away games. But don't read into the list of As too quickly.

While their Round 2 clash with Adelaide is their most likely loss in the opening month, they'll 'travel' to the MCG to face the Hawks on Easter Monday before being hosted in Adelaide by the Bulldogs for Gather Round.

Gold Coast

Opening Round: Richmond (H)
Round 1: Adelaide (H)
Round 2: Western Bulldogs (A)
Round 3: Bye
Round 4: GWS (H)

Estimated Record: 1-3
Estimated Percentage: 90.1
Ladder Position: 14th

The opening four rounds will be a nice early indication of where the Suns sit to start the season, with all four matches potentially going either way.

Their starter against Richmond is enticing, while a successive home game against the Crows might work in their favour. A trip to face the Bulldogs will be equally challenging, while their Gather Round clash against the Giants will come after both clubs serve a Round 3 bye.

GWS

Opening Round: Collingwood (H)
Round 1: North Melbourne (H)
Round 2: West Coast (A)
Round 3: Bye
Round 4: Gold Coast (A)

Estimated Record: 3-1
Estimated Percentage: 133.2
Ladder Position: 5th

There's a very good chance the Giants find themselves undefeated after four games, with their Opening Round tussle with Collingwood likely to decide if they start the season 4-0 or 3-1.

They should pick up wins in the weeks after against North Melbourne and West Coast, with a trip up to Queensland set to be a bigger challenge than what it has been in years gone by.

Hawthorn

Opening Round: Bye
Round 1: Essendon (A)
Round 2: Melbourne (H)
Round 3: Geelong (H)
Round 4: Collingwood (A)

Estimated Record: 0-4
Estimated Percentage: 81.3
Ladder Position: 16th

While winless after Gather Round, the Hawks won't be alone at the bottom of the ladder and could find themselves in 16th despite a 0-4 record.

They could claim a scalp against Essendon or Geelong with some comfort, while they've proven to upset contenders in the past and could snatch a victory against one of Melbourne or Collingwood too.

The Hawks' run will come much easier after the opening month.

Melbourne

Opening Round: Sydney (A)
Round 1: Western Bulldogs (H)
Round 2: Hawthorn (A)
Round 3: Port Adelaide (A)
Round 4: Adelaide (A)

Estimated Record: 3-2
Estimated Percentage: 108.5
Ladder Position: 8th

All eyes are on the Demons to see how they'll start the new season.

An Opening Round trip to face the Swans will be a nice early test, while their return to Victoria to face the Dogs will be no walk in the park either.

Their best chance of a win comes against the Hawks in Round 3, with two straight games in South Australia to follow against the Power and Crows.

North Melbourne

Opening Round: Bye
Round 1: GWS (A)
Round 2: Fremantle (H)
Round 3: Carlton (H)
Round 4: Brisbane (A)

Estimated Record: 0-4
Estimated Percentage: 63.2
Ladder Position: 17th

It's a tough start for the Kangaroos, who face three of the best clubs in the land by the end of Gather Round.

Expect losses against the Giants, Blues and Lions, with their Round 2 home game against Fremantle their best chance to get an early win.

Port Adelaide

Opening Round: Bye
Round 1: West Coast (H)
Round 2: Richmond (A)
Round 3: Melbourne (H)
Round 4: Essendon (H)

Estimated Record: 4-0
Estimated Percentage: 128.8
Ladder Position: 2nd

The Power join the Lions as the only undefeated sides in our early season prediction, with Ken Hinkley's men playing three games at home across the opening month.

An away trip against Richmond will be a close contest, while the Demons and Bombers have proven to cause the Power headaches in recent seasons and could cause an upset.

Richmond

Opening Round: Gold Coast (A)
Round 1: Carlton (A)
Round 2: Port Adelaide (H)
Round 3: Sydney (H)
Round 4: St Kilda (H)

Estimated Record: 1-4
Estimated Percentage: 92.7
Ladder Position: 12th

The Tigers are unable to take advantage early given they play five games by the end of Round 4, with their fixture for the opening month seeing them take on four finalists from last year.

That run comes after an Opening Round trip to Queensland to face the surging Suns - a game that could be their best chance of a win before Round 5.

St Kilda

Opening Round: Bye
Round 1: Geelong (A)
Round 2: Collingwood (H)
Round 3: Essendon (A)
Round 4: Richmond (A)

Estimated Record: 1-3
Estimated Percentage: 93.8
Ladder Position: 11th

The Saints have a difficult opening fortnight to the season, making the trip down to GMHBA Stadium before facing the reigning premiers on the MCG for a home game.

That's followed by their first game back at Marvel Stadium against the Bombers a week later before travelling to South Australia and going toe-to-toe with the Tigers in neutral territory.

Their opening month could really sway either way.

Sydney

Opening Round: Melbourne
Round 1: Collingwood (A)
Round 2: Essendon (H)
Round 3: Richmond (A)
Round 4: West Coast (A)

Estimated Record: 4-1
Estimated Percentage: 120.8
Ladder Position: 3rd

If the Swans can successfully weave their way through their first two games, they'll be in line for a 5-0 start by the end of Roun 4.

We're predicting an early loss to the Magpies however, which will still leave John Longmire's side in a strong position entering their Round 5 bye.

West Coast

Opening Round: Bye
Round 1: Port Adelaide (A)
Round 2: GWS (H)
Round 3: Western Bulldogs (A)
Round 4: Sydney (H)

Estimated Record: 0-4
Estimated Percentage: 58.0
Ladder Position: 18th

While there will be no easy games for the Eagles in 2024, their opening first four games are going to be a real challenge.

Three of their opening four come against 2023 finalists, while a trip to face the Western Bulldogs isn't too easy either.

It could be a while before the Eagles pick up their first win, but they might be looking to replicate their efforts from last year when they upset the Dogs on their home deck.

Western Bulldogs

Opening Round: Bye
Round 1: Melbourne (A)
Round 2: Gold Coast (H)
Round 3: West Coast (H)
Round 4: Geelong (H)

Estimated Record: 2-2
Estimated Percentage: 108.1
Ladder Position: 10th

The only club to break even after Round 4, with the Dogs likely to pick up a win against West Coast and at least one more over Gold Coast, Geelong or Melbourne.

They have three home matches, however their last comes in the form of a clash against the Cats at Gather Round.

Predicted AFL ladder after Round 4

*Played an extra game