AFL Draft

Vic prospects dominate top 20, why future picks will be pivotal: Five things to expect at the 2024 AFL Draft

We’re set to see several trends shape this week’s draft.

Published by
Mitch Keating

The 2024 AFL Draft is almost here and with each new intake of exciting teenagers comes fresh trends, changes and fallouts that come throughout.

This week's highly-anticipated haul of selections could exceed the 70-pick barrier for the first time since 2018, with the 2024 draft class running deep and able to suit every list need.

The current draft order consists of 92 selections, with almost a third of those picks either being absorbed in matched bids for club-tied talent or being passed on late into proceedings.

With this year's count set to be a fascinating event, we look at five things to expect across the two nights of the AFL Draft.

Richmond take centre stage

The Tigers hold a third of the first 24 selections for this year's draft, with their entire draft starting with Pick 1 and ending with the opening pick of the second round.

They hold seven first-round selections and are set to be the biggest player on night one of this year's haul given they hold a collection of picks not seen since the arrival of GWS and Gold Coast over a decade ago.

They'll follow their prized opening pick with the sixth overall selection and have successive selections at 10-11, with Picks 18, 20, 23 and 24 to follow.

Richmond talent manager Blair Hartley speaking at the 2023 AFL Trade Period launch (Image by Zero Digital Media)

The pick-rich position will give Richmond the chance to potentially advance their place in the queue or stock up on 2025 selections with their later picks.

It'll be a crop of recruits that shapes the future at Punt Road and the next stage of the Adem Yze era.

Vics dominate the pointy end

Victorian prospects are expected to dominate the first round of the draft and potentially further, with both Vic Metro and Vic Country having strong National Championships thanks to deep squads.

Both sides entered the final match of this year's U18s carnival undefeated, with Vic Metro taking out the title with a post-siren game-winner at Marvel Stadium.

Zero Hanger's first Mock Draft had 12 of the first 13 prospects selected hailing from Victoria, while our following Mock Draft saw 20 Victorians taken in the first 26 picks.

Luke Trainor celebrating the winning goal in the 2024 National U18s Boys Championships for Vic Metro (Image via AFL Photos)

Victorians Finn O'Sullivan, Jagga Smith, Levi Ashcroft, Sam Lalor, Harvey Langford, Josh Smillie, Harry Armstrong, Murphy Reid, Tobie Travaglia, Alixzander Tauru, Isaac Kako and Luke Trainor are all top 10 draft chances, with South Australian captain Sid Draper, WA utility Bo Allan and Gold Coast-tied midfielder Leonardo Lombard all in the mix to break up that crop.

Positional trends to play out across top 25

The top end of this year's draft class skews towards midfield talent, with the several leading prospects all seen to be ball winners who each offer their own strengths and points of difference.

Most - or maybe even all - of the top 10 could be midfielders, with North Melbourne's plans for Gippsland swingman Alix Tauru and the selection of Sandringham Dragons spearhead Harry Armstrong the best chances to split up that trend.

The following 10-15 selections may then be littered with a mix of key position players and midfield-forward hybrids before the rest of the pool opens up to a more even playing field -with clubs then placing more focus on list needs.

BRISBANE, AUSTRALIA - JULY 07: Alixzander Tauru of Victoria Country in action during the Marsh AFL National Championships match between U18 Boys Allies and Victoria Country at Brighton Homes Arena on July 07, 2024 in Brisbane, Australia. (Photo by Chris Hyde/AFL Photos/via Getty Images)

Clubs keen on a promising tall forward will hope to have a pick in that 15-25 range but would expect Armstrong to be off the board, while sides looking at the ruck options would have their sights set on South Australia's Alex Dodson early or bank on one of their later picks instead.

Key defenders are spread out evenly across the board, with Tauru and Vic Metro's Luke Trainor seen by many as the best two options, with the latter's range one of the largest among this year's class.

2025 picks on the move

Live trading will again heavily reshape this year's draft order, which has already undergone mass changes thanks to the past two trade periods.

Of the 23 first-round selections, 13 picks have found a new home and more early selections are likely on the move as clubs look to break into the early stages of Wednesday's intake.

 

The best chance clubs have to move into night one of the 2024 count is by using their future first-round picks, with a selection that could be viewed as a top 10 selection next year potentially being used to get into the second half of this year's first round given the strength of the prospect pool.

Essendon, West Coast and Gold Coast hold multiple 2025 first-round selections, with the latter having three picks after adding Collingwood and Port Adelaide's best picks for next year.

MELBOURNE, AUSTRALIA - OCTOBER 07: Matt Rosa, Essendon Talent & Operations Manager speaks during the 2024 Continental Tyres AFL Trade Period at Marvel Stadium on October 07, 2024 in Melbourne, Australia. (Photo by Josh Chadwick/AFL Photos via Getty Images)

While the Suns are likely to hold their trio of 2025 first-round picks, the Bombers and Eagles are a chance to trade into the first round by using their pair of early future picks.

Other clubs who still have a first-round pick for next year could look to trade into the later stages of night one or even the first few picks of the second round, with next year's draft order set to undergo serious change by the end of Thursday night.

Bids to come early, and late

The AFL Draft will again be heavily impacted by matched bids for Academy and father-son selections, with Brisbane-tied star Levi Ashcroft expected to go close to Pick 1 on Wednesday night.

While a forced selection by Richmond to open the count is unlikely, North Melbourne and Carlton will certainly consider having the Lions stump up a large number of draft points at Picks 2 or 3.

Gold Coast Academy talent Leonardo Lombard and Essendon Next Generation Academy Isaac Kako are both top 10 draft chances, while the Lions have another first-round prospect in Academy jet Sam Marshall.

All four players are tipped to be selected on night one, while Carlton, Sydney, GWS, North Melbourne, Hawthorn, St Kilda, Port Adelaide, Adelaide and West Coast are also a chance to have priority access prospects earn National Draft bids.

MELBOURNE, AUSTRALIA - SEPTEMBER 30: Ben Camporeale of Team Naitanui and Lucas Camporeale of Team Selwood pose for a photograph after the AFL Futures match between Team Selwood v Team Naitanui at Melbourne Cricket Ground, on September 30, 2023, in Melbourne, Australia. (Photo by Daniel Pockett/AFL Photos/via Getty Images)

The Blues have father-son pair Ben and Lucas Camporeale, with Tyler Welsh (Adelaide) and River Stevens (North Melbourne) joining the twin midfielders and Ashcroft as strong possibilities to be placed onto primary lists as father-son selections in the second half of the draft.

Adrian Cole (St Kilda), Cody Anderson (Hawthorn), Malakai Champion (West Coast), Lennox Hofmann (St Kilda), Jayden Nguyen (Essendon), Joel Cochran (Sydney) and Logan Smith (GWS) are also among the Academy names who should earn a selection.

Published by
Mitch Keating