Injured Western Bulldogs speedster Bailey Smith is understood to have an "85 per cent chance" of heading down the highway to Geelong instead of exiting Whitten Oval to go to Hawthorn as he weighs up his future.
Longed to exit the Kennel, Smith has been tending to an anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) injury he sustained late last year, which ruled him out of 2024.
Amid a disgruntled time at the Dogs where the 23-year-old was played across the half-forward line and wing, reports indicated that the social media sensation was looking for a fresh start.
With Collingwood seemingly out of the race due to their lack of high-end picks worthy of a Smith handover, it left the Hawks and Cats to duke it out for his signature, with the latter the more likely.
Geelong has had a knack over the years of trading in high-end talent and turning them into superstars, while a close link to sponsor Cotton On is another selling point to Smith.
Speaking on Fox Footy'sย Midweek Tackle, Herald Sun journalist Jon Ralph was adamant the Cats are in the front seat to sign, while a new $60 million state-of-the-art training facility next to GMHBA Stadium is another luring factor.
โIt just makes me think again Geelong is such a destination club,โ Ralph said.
โIn the next eight or 10 weeks, Bailey Smith will be doing tours (of rival clubs) ... and you'd think a tour of Geelong. It's just such an amazing precinct they have down there and they'll show him those plans.
โShow him if you want to live in Barwon Heads like Joel Selwood or Pacington Street, you can do all those things.
โIt just makes me think even more Bailey Smith fits so snugly hand in fist at the Geelong Football Club.
โHe is 85 per cent there and of course Hawthorn still a 15 per cent chance. Collingwood 0 per cent.โ
To get the deal done from any suitors (expected to be Geelong or Hawthorn), they'd have to pony up a first-round pick, likely within the first ten to lock away Smith, who was the Pick 7 in the 2018 National Draft.
SEE MORE: AFL Draft Order 2024
Geelong currently hold Picks 14 and 34 which can be packaged up to get higher in the draft or used to get the deal done.
Hawthorn holds Pick 6 and 33, which would be much more appealing to the Bulldogs.
Smith's current teammate, Riley Garcia, has also popped up in trade conversations among rivals as he has found himself out of favour under coach Luke Beveridge.
Garcia has battled injuries since joining the club in 2019, resulting in 27 games to date and eight in 2024.
Despite producing strong form in the senior side, averaging 17.4 disposals and 3.2 tackles, he was surprisingly dropped after the club's Round 14 loss to Brisbane.
However, the 23-year-old has proven to be a step above the VFL grade, with journalist Sam Landsberger believing he'd be on the radar of other clubs.
โI think there's a watch on Riley Garcia, he's far too good to be playing VFL โ he's had 41, 31, 35, and 31 (disposals respectively) in the VFL this year,โ Landsberger said.
โReally surprised he got dropped a few weeks ago ... had a wretched run of injury throughout his career, missed 32 games in his first four years but has not missed a beat this year.
โI think both club and player said at the start of the year: โLet's see if how his body holds up and if he's playing AFL football.'
โIf he stays out of the team, I just think other clubs will come for him and they'd be silly not too.โ
