With a fortnight to go in one of the tightest home-and-away seasons in the AFL era, as many as 13 fanbases still have dreams of September.
Whether topping the table with two games to play or those requiring multiple bolts of divine intervention, here are the permutations facing each of this season's finals aspirants.
Current points and percentage - 68pts/126.7%
Remaining fixtures – Brisbane (H) and Essendon (A)
Would need to drop Friday night to the Lions by a sizeable margin and then drop their final game to Essendon to be any chance of falling out of first. Irrespective, Fly's Pies have sewn up the double chance and a home final.
Current points and percentage - 60pts/123.2%
Remaining fixtures – Collingwood (A) and St Kilda (H)
Will need to win both of their final games – Collingwood and St Kilda – to be any chance of kicking Collingwood off the ladder's top perch. Naturally, for Chris Fagan's pride to climb, they also require the Pies to drop their Round 24 fixture to arch-enemies Essendon. Friday night is, in effect, an old-fashioned eight-pointer.
Current points and percentage - 60pts/111.0%
Remaining fixtures – Fremantle (A) and Richmond (H)
Ken Hinkley's charges will need to make mince out of the Dockers and Tigers to make up the 12.2 per cent gap on the Lions in order to earn a top-two finish and a qualifying final at Adelaide Oval. Port still relies on Brisbane beating Collingwood to start Round 23, however, if the Lions take down the Saints, a finish above third is off the table. Should they short circuit, losing both of their remaining fixtures, the Power can also fall down to fourth, depending on Melbourne's results.
Current points and percentage - 56pts/124.0%
Remaining fixtures – Hawthorn (H) and Sydney (A)
Two wins and a single Port loss would likely be enough to see Simon Goodwin's legion take third spot. The same equation applies to finishing second should the Lions drop one, or both, of their remaining matches. Still sitting in a precarious spot, though, Melbourne could lose its double chance should they go winless across the final fortnight and Carlton continues their winning streak through to the end.
Current points and percentage - 50pts/116.8%
Remaining fixtures – Gold Coast (A) and GWS (H)
The two points gained from tying with the Tigers on the season's opening night have come in handy, with Michael Voss's side just six points, rather than eight, out of the top four. The Princes Parkers will need to keep up their winning ways if they are to earn a double chance. The form of others, namely Melbourne, will also come into play, with Bluebaggers likely to be cheering on the Hawks and Swans in the fortnight to come.
Current points and percentage - 48pts/107.0%
Remaining fixtures – Geelong (H) and Brisbane (A)
The first of our teams on the most daunting of precipices. Should the Saints win either of their remaining fixtures, the men from Moorabbin will have earned their ticket to the September action. Drop both and their destiny falls into the palms of others. Losses, of any kind, for the likes of Sydney, Western Bulldogs, Essendon, GWS and Saturday night's opponents, Geelong, will aid St Kilda's cause. Still, two losses, and an entire season spent inside the eight could prove futile.
Current points and percentage - 46pts/112.1%
Remaining fixtures – Adelaide (A) and Melbourne (H)
It's a tough run home for last year's vanquished grand finalists, however, with a foot in the eight and the nous on how to weave through September, you can only count the Swans out at your peril. A win over fellow finals aspirants Adelaide this weekend will go a long way to solidifying their place; losses from the Saints and Blues could allow for further shifts. Still, like Ross Lyon's Saints, any slip-ups and a return to the last Saturday in September will be but a pipe dream. The two points claimed in the almost unwatchable draw with Geelong in Round 16 could prove the difference between finals and an early flight to Bali.
Current points and percentage – 44pts/108.5%
Remaining fixtures – West Coast (H) and Geelong (A)
Currently in the eight on percentage alone after dropping a heartbreaker to the Hawks last weekend, Luke Beveridge's pack will be out for a boost when they face West Coast at Docklands on Sunday. A big win, as well as a set of St Kilda and Sydney losses, will be enough to see the Dogs take outright sixth. Yet, another unexpected defeat will mean a win at the Cattery becomes an absolute must. Any wins from the chasing pack of Bombers, Giants and Cats this weekend will only serve to increase the intensity if they are paired with a shock loss from the Pups.
Current points and percentage – 44pts/99.1%
Remaining fixtures – GWS (A) and Collingwood (H)
It's a tough landing to stick for head coach Brad Scott, but if the Dons knock off the Giants and Pies, the Bombers will have more than earned their spot in the eight. With the second thinnest percentage of all September contenders, Essendon must win both games, as well as rely upon results going their way. Any losses from teams situated sixth through to 13th will be appreciated by any Bombers barracker worth their salt. This Saturday afternoon in Sydney's West is an eight-pointer.
Current points and percentage – 44pts/98.6%
Remaining fixtures – Essendon (H) and Carlton (A)
In almost the exact same boat as Essendon, with less than a single percentage point separating the Round 23 combatants. Lose at any stage, and the season is over. Win both, and it still might not be enough. Despite the many permutations, rookie coach Adam Kingsley won't be looking much further than his side's eight-pointer at GIANTS Stadium this Saturday.
Current points and percentage – 42pts/117.5%
Remaining fixtures – St Kilda (A) and Western Bulldogs (H)
Unlike Sydney, the reigning premier's Round 16 draw at the SCG will only work in their favour if they manage to prove perfect throughout the home-and-away season's final fortnight. And with back-to-back dates against September hopefuls in the Saints and Dogs, Chris Scott's clowder has their work cut out for them. With a healthy percentage, two wins should be enough to lock away a place in the lower part of the eight. Any loss, however, and curtains will be called on the Cats' flag reign.
Current points and percentage – 40pts/115.8%
Remaining fixtures – Sydney (H) and West Coast (A)
After looking every bit the finals side for a sizeable portion of the season, the Crows' route to September is now simple: win twice or start looking for flights to Cancun. Adelaide's healthy percentage should prove helpful in the hunt for the eight, however, if the Swans come to the City of Churches and knock them off this weekend, it will all be for naught.
Current points and percentage – 38 pts/93.1%
Remaining fixtures – North Melbourne (H) and Port Adelaide (A)
After losing to the Saints last weekend, as well as only splitting points against the Blues in Round 1, Richmond's chances of cracking it for a September slot are now slim to none. The smallest percentage of any mathematical challenger doesn't help the Tigers' cause either. We could run several rounds of calculus to work Richmond into the eight, but we'll just tell you that, at this stage, it would take more than a minor miracle.