Eight teams are going into spring vividly dreaming about the prospect of being the ones atop the podium in the middle of the mighty 'G on the last Saturday in September.
Although the AFL does like to pitch a utopian universe where absolutely anyone from one through to eight has a chance to win it - and statistically they do - the reality is that there are sides who simply do not have what it takes to go all the way and are merely there to make up the numbers.
However, the underdog scenario is one that has been kept alive largely off the back of the Western Bulldogs' 2016 record-breaking premiership victory, meaning that even the sides who have no second chances in September can point to Luke Beveridge's side as the case study for success.
With finals around the corner and footy fans raring to go, it helps to remind ourselves what has gone before in terms of what top-eight positions are figurative 'hotspots' in producing the most premiers over the span of the past 22 seasons since the top-eight system was introduced.
We will be ranking them from least successful to most successful and, if level on premiers produced, split by how recently the position has proved successful.
As for the spots that haven't borne premiers, we will be ranking them on the furthest a team has gotten from said spot and how often it has come to fruition.
So without further ado, let's get into it
8. Eighth - no premiers
In total there are four dead spots on this list, with eighth being the 'deadest' of them all.
This is an easy one to wrap your head around, considering that eighth is usually a team that sneaks into September action rather than kicks down the door.
Unfortunately for Bulldogs fans this year, history is not on your side with no club across the previous 22 years of the top-eight system having won the flag from eighth.
The furthest anyone in the current system has made it you ask? It was the Kangaroos in 2015, who mounted an astonishing run from eighth on the ladder to beat Richmond andย Sydney only to bow out in a preliminary final against the Eagles in Perth.
Luckily for the Dogs, they managed to make the big dance last year from fifth spot, however, the road there this year is quite a great deal harder with no home finals to speak of on the road to the last Saturday in September.
7. Sixth - no premiers
Once again, it's another sudden-death spot that has borne no premiers over the past two decades.
Although sixth spot does boast a nice cosy home elimination final for whoever manages to snag it, the comfortability often stops there as very few teams manage to back it up the week after should they progress.
The most successful team from sixth comes in the form of GWS in 2019, who made it through to the Grand Final after beating the Bulldogs, Lions and most famously Collingwood prior to being demolished by eventual premiers Richmond.
North Melbourne in 2014, Collingwood in 2007 and Hawthorn in 2001 were the only three other sides to make it further than the semi-finals, each bowing out in the penultimate round.
Brisbane this year has claimed the spot, and despite a less than impressive finish to the season still will have hope that they could hit their straps and somehow replicate GWS in 2019 - minus the thrashing on the biggest stage of all.
6. Fourth - no premiers
It's strange to think that out of the dead spots on this list, fourth spot is one of them, having never produced a single premier in the current finals system.
Considering that in the best-case scenario a team who finishes fourth has one of both a home and an away final, it's surprising that there haven't been more teams that have propelled themselves to September glory off the back of this position.
Geelong in 2020 were the last team to make the Grand Final from fourth spot, whilst Sydney in 2006 and Collingwood in 2002 were the only other two teams to replicate their feat.
Interestingly, in 17 of the past 22 seasons, those who have finished in fourth spot have gone on to feature in a preliminary final at the bare minimum, meaning that if sides stumble at the first hurdle, more often than not they can make it through to the penultimate week in September.
The Pies are the side that have clawed their way into the top four off the back of their ridiculous record in close games, however will be hoping to be pioneers by being the first-ever side in the current system to win a flag from fourth.
5. Fifth - no premiers
This position has been a bit of a happy hunting ground over the past ten years for those wanting to make it somewhat deep into September.
The Doggies last year were the most successful side to come out of fifth spot, making it to the Grand Final at Optus Stadium before being slaughtered by premiers Melbourne in a catastrophic second-half display.
Prior to this, Melbourne in 2018 and Port Adelaide in 2014 were the only sides to reach a preliminary final from the highest perch in the sudden death spots, underlining the fact that having a home final in the first week of the series doesn't do as much assistance in the long-run for premiership hopefuls.
With the inexperienced Dockers in this position in the current day, it'll be interesting to see whether or not they can use it to propel themselves to an unlikely premiership win or conk out in straight sets as they look to best Luke Beveridge's Bulldogs in Perth.
4. Seventh - one premier
Here it is, the magic spot outside of the top four. We say magic lightly, seeing as the Dogs are the only team to make this spot notable over the past two decades.
In fact outside of that, no team has made it past a semi-final when finishing in seventh, which is a bit grim considering the amount of joy the spot gave the Bulldogs in 2016.
Doubling down on this, in only eight of the last 22 seasons have we seen the side who finished in seventh make it past theย elimination final. If the Dogs' 2016 underdog story never unfolded, this spot would have been at rock bottom of this list, ouch.
Therefore, Richmond fans should be thanking Luke Beveridge for being a trailblazer and pioneering the art of winning a flag outside of the four. In saying this, the Tigers are looking incredibly ominous and we know what they can do when they're at the business end of the year.
Could there be a second premier from this spot come season's end? We will have to wait and see.
3. Second - seven premiers (most recent 2018)
Now we get to the spots that have all ground out premiers on a consistent basis. Second spot comes in at number three only due to recency, with West Coast being the last side to lift the premiership cup from here in 2018.
In terms of winners outside of the Eagles, Alastair Clarkson won two of his flags with the Hawks in 2008 and 2014 from second, as did Geelong in 2009 and 2011 as well as Brisbane in their dynasty years of 2001 and '02.
Conversely, sides who were the bridesmaids after finishing second were West Coast in both 2005 and 2015, Port Adelaide in 2007 (best we do not discuss this one), Brisbane in 2004 and the Pies in '03.
All of these combined mean that in 11 of the last 22 Grand Finals, a team that finished second has featured, meaning that Demons fans will be dreaming once again of returning to the big dance - this time in front of a roaring crowd at the home of footy.
2. Third - seven premiers (most recent 2020)
Third spot has been made prominent over the past five years due to one team in particular - Damien Hardwick's Richmond.
Prior to their dynasty, only four sides in the top 8 system had been premiers from third-place - Brisbane in 2003, the Swans in 2005 and 2012 and the Hawks in 2015.
Additionally, runner-ups have come in the form of Melbourne in 2000, St Kilda in 2010, Fremantle in 2013 and Collingwood in 2018 meaning that third-placed teams have featured just as many times in the big dance as the spot above them since 2000.
Interestingly, Richmond's 2020 premiership, Brisbane's in '03, Sydney's in 2005 and Hawthorn's in 2015 all saw them taste defeat in the first week of finals, meaning four of the seven sides have won the flag from third after losing their qualifying final.
Should John Longmire's young, hungry Swans make it to the last Saturday in September after losing to Melbourne in Week 1, you'd be wise to chuck a tenner on them to take home the flag if you're solely looking at history.
1. First - seven premiers (most recent 2021)
This is the spot that punters usually put their cash on to win on the last day in September, and for good reason seeing as the minor premiers are technically the best side going into finals.
The Demons last year romped to a drought-breaking flag after bossing the home-and-away season, however prior to their win minor premiers had notoriously struggled in the 2010s to win the flag.
Only Collingwood in 2010 and Hawthorn in 2013 had managed to win the flag throughout the decade after claiming the minor premiership, with only Essendon at the turn of the century, Port Adelaide in 2004, West Coast in 2006 and Geelong in '07 managing to match the feat.
Moreover, the fact that in 15 of the past 22 seasons the minor premier appeared in the Grand Final and less than half of them have finished the job on the day shows that great teams can fall apart when it truly matters - even if they have been relatively flawless up until that point.
As for Geelong, who occupy the position heading into September, they will be hoping they can finally make it stick after coming up chumps most years since 2011, with their dominance in the second half of the year putting them as clear favourites for the flag.
