AFL Editorial and Opinion

Who will be the AFL’s next dynasty team?

We dust off our crystal ball and critique the contenders👇

Published by
Zero Hanger

If you reside in the capital of the sunshine state or Melbourne's leafy east, you'll probably argue that a description for sustained success is hardly necessary.

There may be multiple ways to define this kind of continual achievement, but none have entrenched themselves within the global sporting lexicon like the succinct term of ‘dynasty'.

For the fans of different faiths located in other grids on the map, the Oxford dictionary defines the expression as ‘a period of years during which members of a particular family rule a country'.

Much like the historical emperors of the far east and the current lineages of European monarchs, footballing history is plotted into eras. Each of these chronological segments are in turn ascribed a presiding class.

The ‘Magpie Machine' ruled the late twenties with four flags under the eye of master technician Jock McHale.

Melbourne and Norm Smith owned the fifties, winning four premierships before being crowned again in 1960.

Despite the horrendous hairdos and the unbearable accompanying soundtrack, the eighties were more than likely the highlight of your life if your heart lies with Hawthorn.

The recent Lions' and Hawks' three peats also had them atop the footballing throne from a large portion of the current century.

It isn't just the stars of these conquering clans that people remember. The lesser lights and smaller cogs in the machine are also fondly recalled by many.

Their rotations in the well-oiled apparatus may have run a smaller circumference, but their team's success was contingent on them spinning consistently without falter.

Reaching football's Everest even once is a tough task. Attempting to stay astride the summit seems outwardly Sisyphean.

If all things were equal, AFL teams would enter each season with a less than six percent chance of taking home the premiership cup. So, to stay above the pack for a number of years requires an ability to count cards.

How is it that many teams of yesteryear were able to collect a cabinet of trophies in such brief periods of time? What are the attributes and indicators that are consistent between them?

Having compared and contrasted these five eras, these storied outfits were found to share more than a handful of commonalities.

The six threads that you can find weaved into the tapestry of these dynasties are:

  • High calibre leaders in the coaching box.
  • High end talent that created the nucleus of the team.
  • Head hunted players that formed a second rung of complimentary talent.
  • The ability to retain their own talent.
  • Decorated captains.
  • Individuals that irrespective of skill understood their role and performed it consistently.
  • Off-field stability

With this septet of elements acting as the recipe for a swag of flags, we peeked inside some team's pantries to see if they are stocked with the requisite ingredients for a succession of sweet Septembers.

You will notice the key name of Richmond missing from this experiment. This is due to the fact they are still expanding the bounds of their contemporary success.

This exercise is seeking to look further than an already printed fixture list, so naturally it will be geared towards examining possibilities of future success.

Without further ado, let's see who is next in line to the throne.


The Coaches

The titles of tactical mastermind or peerless leader of men aren't usually attributed to head coaches still gainfully employed. So obviously, this is challenging to analyse at the current time due to the fact that a legacy is best critiqued upon completion.

With that being said, coaches from three teams that tick multiple boxes have already won premierships – Adam Simpson, John Longmire and Luke Beveridge.

Whether or not this trio can replicate this achievement on several other occasions is yet to be determined. They can be assured they will face stiff opposition from the litany of coaches heading up and coming clubs.

However, with runs already on the board, their CV's have progressed beyond the template stage.

It must also be noted that Nathan Buckley, Chris Fagan and Ken Hinkley have previously been voted by their peers as the coach of the year.


The Nucleus

In the last ten AFL drafts, every one of the eighteen clubs have made between four (Hawthorn), and thirty-five (GWS) first round selections.

Although being selected within the first round of the draft does not guarantee any instant or future quality, it does create a bounds for our scope.

Take the latest Hawthorn dynasty for example. Their four flags across this period were created off selecting names such as Franklin, Roughead, Hodge, Rioli and Lewis in the first round. This quartet of players created the Hawk's heart and were key pillars in the club's success.

Carlton fans may be quick to dispute this claim, as their five number one picks alone in the draft era have yet to yield a flag.

However, If we are to accept that first round selections are invariably selected to create a team's nucleus, then we must analyse who has utilised them scrupulously in the past decade.

These teams are not only primed for future success, but have also made best use of their first round selections since 2010.

Gold Coast – (28 in total) including Matt Rowell, Noah Anderson, Jack Lukosius, Izak Rankine, Ben King, Jack Bowes and David Swallow.
Brisbane – (17) Cameron Rayner, Zac Bailey, Hugh McCluggage, Jarrod Berry and Eric Hipwood.
Carlton – (16) Sam Walsh, Sam Petrevski-Seton, Jacob Weitering, Harry McKay, Charlie Curnow and Patrick Cripps.
Fremantle – (13) Caleb Serong, Andrew Brayshaw, Adam Cerra and Griffin Logue.
St. Kilda – (12) Max King, Hunter Clark, Nick Coffield, Jade Gresham and Seb Ross.
Sydney – (11) Nick Blakey, Oliver Florent, Will Hayward, Callum Mills and Isaac Heeney.
Port Adelaide – (11) Mitch Georgiades, Connor Rozee, Zak Butters, Xavier Duursma, Sam Powell-Pepper, Todd Marshall and Ollie Wines.
Western Bulldogs – (11) Bailey Smith, Aaron Naughton, Ed Richards, Tim English, Marcus Bontempelli, Jack Macrae and Mitch Wallis.
Melbourne – (9) Luke Jackson, Kysaiah Pickett, Clayton Oliver, Christian Petracca, Angus Brayshaw and Christian Salem.
Collingwood - (7) Jaidyn Stephenson, Jordan De Goey, Darcy Moore and Brodie Grundy.
Essendon – (7)
Andrew McGrath, Darcy Parish, Joe Daniher and Dyson Heppell.


The Additional Talent

As mentioned, premiership success is contingent on not just the core stars performing, but those that have been selected to complement them – the second unit.

With a staggering 65 players turned over in the past five years, Carlton haven't been inconspicuous in their rebuild. However, after decades of heartache for bluebaggers, it seems that coach David Teague is now happy with what he has at his disposal.

This upheaval of players is proof that Carlton has not only utilised it's first round selections, but has traded for players like Sam Docherty, Jack Martin* and half of GWS' list.

Another team busy at the trade table in recent times has been St. Kilda. With the attainments of Bradley Hill, Zak Jones, Paddy Ryder, Dougal Howard and Dan Butler, the Saints have added strength to their list in every position.

Add these names to those of King, Gresham, Clark and the like and the Saints are primed to continue their upward trajectory.

Brisbane must also be mentioned and commended for their additions of names like Luke Hodge, Charlie Cameron, Lincoln McCarthy and Lachie Neale.

For a club so recently used to having talent walk out the door, this change in fortunes is the major ingredient for the Lions' return to prominence.

Melbourne may have parted with numerous first round picks, but they have also added some more than reliable players to their list in recent years.

The same can also be said about the Magpies and Bombers.


The Retention of Talent

Currently, it has never been harder to retain the talent at your club. List management is made tougher with impediments such as a salary cap, seventeen competing employers, free agency, avaricious player managers and players that understand their own worth.

Aside from the Gold Coast, Brisbane and Sydney, all of the previously aforementioned teams have been able to retain most of the players they desired to keep.

Still, it should be mentioned that this came about due to homesickness, better financial offers and punishment for a misbehavior.

Despite previously stated, Brisbane have managed to arrest this problem recently and that Suns are desperate to follow suit with their current crop of young guns.

With Joe Daniher, Adam Saad and Orazio Fantasia's names linked with Essendon exits, this could be where the Bombers find themselves behind the eight ball.


The Leadership

Think decorated footballing leaders and names like Voss, Hodge and Tuck are almost certain to cross your mind.

There may not be anyone close for comparison in a contemporary sense, but should the careers of Marcus Bontempelli and Patrick Cripps continue unimpeded, who's to say what their future holds.

With the pair only in their mid-twenties, fans of both the Dogs and the Blues can expect to see them leading their respective rising teams for many a year to come.

It would be more than just remiss to forget to include Nat Fyfe here. With a pair of Brownlow's to his name, the West Australian native will be hopeful that he can remain intact and in purple to lead the club to more than just their first flag.

Scott Pendlebury's resume across his fifteen year career also ticks this box. With 'Pendles' recently notching the club records for most games played and most games captained, it will soon only be a flag as skipper that is evading him.

Having already held the cup aloft on the dais, Shannon Hurn's name must also be mentioned.


The Bottom Six Theory

There are numerous players that have won a premiership and even fewer that have won multiple. However, I implore you to have a look at a range of premiership teams because you will find an array of names that never seemed close to setting the world on fire.

Their selection on grand final day, as for most of their careers, was contingent on them performing a role and performing it well.

A chain is only as strong as its weakest link, just as a football team is said to only be as solid as its bottom six players.

Presently, these role players and minor cogs are on every list. They may not bring the crowds to the ground or have their numbers adorning guernseys in the outer, but they are a necessary element of sustained success.

With our list of potential premiership powerhouses already sourced, it is now time to analyse who fits into their bottom six and how many would get a run the top five clubs – Port, Brisbane, Geelong, West Coast and Richmond.

For fairness sake, it was decided that we would choose from the squads selected to play in the final home and away round (18) of the season.

The leader of the pack, unsurprisingly given their ladder position, was Brisbane with four of their bottom six (Ellis-Yolmen, Coleman, Lester, McInerney, Payne and Starcevich) possessing the ability to be selected at one or more of their rivals.


The Club's stability

The off-field steadiness of a football club can be measured by multiple yardsticks.

For the purposes of this experiment, a club's financial status, membership tally (compared to last season) and facilities will be our indicators.

With these three in mind, here's how our ten potential teams performed:

Brisbane: X ✔ ½
Carlton: ✔✔✔
Collingwood:✔ X ✔
Essendon: ✔ X ✔
Fremantle: X X ✔
Gold Coast: X ✔ X
Melbourne: X X X
Port Adelaide: ½ X ✔
St. Kilda: X✔✔
Sydney: ½ X X
West Coast: ✔✔✔
Western Bulldogs: X X ✔

Bearing in mind that this season has ravaged clubs financially, it would be wise to wait until each team has released their annual report before taking any of this as red.

With the pantries now raided and the ingredients measured carefully, we must now assess which teams possess the similar attributes to the legendary teams of the past.

1st - Carlton  (7 points)
Equal 2nd - Collingwood and West Coast (6)
4th - Brisbane (5½)
Equal 5th - Essendon and St. Kilda (5)
7th –  Port Adelaide (4½)
8th – Fremantle (4)

9th – Sydney (2
½)
Equal 10th – Gold Coast and Melbourne (2)

Now I can hear your howls of derision loud and clear. As we are using the inexact science of estimation to form this answer, consuming more than just a grain of salt is a prerequisite.

Although an interesting experiment, future success is nigh on impossible to truly predict. Ask truthful economist.

However, if the past has taught us anything, it is that history is liable to repeat itself when past formulas for success are followed correctly.

The AFL is now without doubt a socialistic competition. With weighted fixtures, a salary cap and a merit-based draft, the days of brown paper bags and third-party premierships are seemingly behind us.

These factors mean that winning a premiership, let alone three or four on the trot, has arguably never been harder.

Despite all of the off field analysing, deliberations and executions, Australian Rules Football has never been a game played on paper. It takes a champion team filled to the brim with stars to stack a trophy cabinet.

Published by
Zero Hanger