If there was ever a year where anyone could win it, it's 2024.
The two best teams in the AFL currently could both be sitting outside the top four and playing off this Friday. You'd be hard-pressed finding a team in better form than Hawthorn or the Western Bulldogs.
Sydney and Port Adelaide have the home double-chance advantage and history suggests at least one of them will make it to the last day of the season.
It feels like this year's premiership will buck recent trends.
There's a real chance for two interstate sides to take centre stage at the 'G.
There's a strong chance the winner comes from outside the top four.
We could have the very first expansion-side premiership this century.
Each side in the eight has a compelling case to win it all, and each side could just as easily falter at the first or final hurdle. Let's go through the reasons why each 2024 finalist CAN and CANNOT win the flag.
Why Sydney can...
- The minor premier has won the last three flags.
- With Justin McInerney and Tom Papley set for September, their best 23 may all be available.
- Their best footy is still the competition's benchmark.
- Who do you quell when Heeney, Gulden and Warner are clicking?
Why Sydney can't...
- Premiership teams don't collapse so late in the season and get belted by 112 points, as the Swans did at the Adelaide Oval.
- Key forwards Logan McDonald and Joel Amartey are unproven finals performers.
Why Port Adelaide can...
- Ken's sentiment draws eery comparison's to Mark Williams' 2004 triumph.
- They have the midfield talent and depth to match anyone.
- Jason Horne-Francis is a one-man matchwinner.
Why Port Adelaide can't...
- Lack of MCG practise and an unfavourable recent finals record.
- Flakey forward-line and defence.
Why Geelong can...
- They've got the experience, maturity, pedigree and champions to pull it off.
- Dangerfield is coming off a similar finals runway to 2022.
- They may have the best coach in the league with a September trick or two up his sleeve.
Why Geelong can't...
- Reliance on stars; Patrick Dangerfield, Tom Stewart, Max Holmes, Tyson Stengle.
- Their list doesn't hold up against majority of the finalists on paper.
Why GWS can...
- The orange tsunami stands up in September.
- They may have won it last year with a top four finish, which they've earned this year.
- Toby Greene could be saving his peak performance for the biggest stage.
- The list is elite on all lines (Sam Taylor, Jack Buckley, Lachie Whitfield - Tom Green, Josh Kelly, James Peatling - Jesse Hogan, Toby Greene, Brent Daniels)
Why GWS can't...
- Kieren Briggs is a pivotal piece under a major injury cloud.
- While somewhat undermanned, they were dramatically outplayed in the fourth quarter of Round 24 against the Bulldogs, a fellow finalist.
Why Brisbane can...
- When they're on, they probably have the best list going around.
- They passed the last year's litmus test and have no more excuses.
- The youngsters have lifted in the last 12 months; Will Ashcroft, Kai Lohmann, Darcy Wilmot, Logan Morris.
Why Brisbane can't...
- They squandered the pivotal double-chance.
- Their teamwork keeps rearing it's ugly head, being notoriously wasteful inside 50.
Why Western Bulldogs can...
- They may be the best team in the best form.
- They have the personnel and the skipper to take them there.
- The Rory Lobb move to defence is a game changer.
- If any club could do it from outside the four, it's the 2016 premiers.
Why Western Bulldogs can't...
- They're facing the best team from the second half of the season in week one.
- The travel factor makes it a tough task.
Why Hawthorn can...
- They've been the best team since Round 8.
- They have the most even spread of contributors in the comp.
- Sam Mitchell could be cooking up a 2008 repeat.
- The '13, '14, '15, premiership pedigree is still there (Luke Breust and Jack Gunston).
- They play the MCG better than anyone.
Why Hawthorn can't...
- It's too early for these Hawks... surely.
- Will Day's absence is a major loss.
- Who is their Pendlebury, Selwood or Gawn? Can Sicily lead a premiership run?
Why Carlton can...
- Their entire finals campaign feels like a free swing
- Stars are returning (Charlie Curnow, Harry McKay, Tom De Koning, Adam Cerra, Jack Martin), though not certain.
- If last year is any indication, they are strong finals performers.
- Cripps and Walsh will go to another level in September
Why Carlton can't...
- You can't win it from 8th... surely.
- Injuries have plagued them too much to win the flag.
- Key forwards don't dominate finals, and the Blues rely on Curnow and McKay.
- Week one at the Gabba is rough.
