Why each finalist can and cannot win the 2024 AFL Premiership
The finals have never been this wide open. Who has the best case to win the flag?
Published by
Frank Seal
If there was ever a year where anyone could win it, it's 2024.
The two best teams in the AFL currently could both be sitting outside the top four and playing off this Friday. You'd be hard-pressed finding a team in better form than Hawthorn or the Western Bulldogs.
Sydney and Port Adelaide have the home double-chance advantage and history suggests at least one of them will make it to the last day of the season.
It feels like this year's premiership will buck recent trends.
There's a real chance for two interstate sides to take centre stage at the 'G.
There's a strong chance the winner comes from outside the top four.
We could have the very first expansion-side premiership this century.
Each side in the eight has a compelling case to win it all, and each side could just as easily falter at the first or final hurdle. Let's go through the reasons why each 2024 finalist CAN and CANNOT win the flag.
SYDNEY, AUSTRALIA - MAY 17: James Jordon of the Swans celebrates with team mates after kicking a goal during the round 10 AFL match between Sydney Swans and Carlton Blues at SCG, on May 17, 2024, in Sydney, Australia. (Photo by Matt King/AFL Photos/via Getty Images)
Why Port Adelaide can...
Ken's sentiment draws eery comparison's to Mark Williams' 2004 triumph.
They have the midfield talent and depth to match anyone.
Lack of MCG practise and an unfavourable recent finals record.
Flakey forward-line and defence.
ADELAIDE, AUSTRALIA - MARCH 18: Ken Hinkley, Senior Coach of the Power during the 2023 AFL Round 01 match between the Port Adelaide Power and the Brisbane Lions at Adelaide Oval on March 18, 2023 in Adelaide, Australia. (Photo by James Elsby/AFL Photos via Getty Images)
Why Geelong can...
They've got the experience, maturity, pedigree and champions to pull it off.
Dangerfield is coming off a similar finals runway to 2022.
They may have the best coach in the league with a September trick or two up his sleeve.
Their list doesn't hold up against majority of the finalists on paper.
MELBOURNE, AUSTRALIA - SEPTEMBER 16: Patrick Dangerfield of the Cats celebrates a goal during the AFL First Preliminary match between the Geelong Cats and the Brisbane Lions at Melbourne Cricket Ground on September 16, 2022 in Melbourne, Australia. (Photo by Darrian Traynor/AFL Photos/Getty Images)
Why GWS can...
The orange tsunami stands up in September.
They may have won it last year with a top four finish, which they've earned this year.
Toby Greene could be saving his peak performance for the biggest stage.
Kieren Briggs is a pivotal piece under a major injury cloud.
While somewhat undermanned, they were dramatically outplayed in the fourth quarter of Round 24 against the Bulldogs, a fellow finalist.
ADELAIDE, AUSTRALIA - APRIL 07: Stephen Coniglio of the Giants celebrates a goal with teammate Harry Perryman during the 2024 AFL Round 04 match between the Gold Coast SUNS and GWS GIANTS at Adelaide Hills - Mt Barker on April 07, 2024 in Adelaide, Australia. (Photo by Dylan Burns/AFL Photos via Getty Images)
Why Brisbane can...
When they're on, they probably have the best list going around.
They passed the last year's litmus test and have no more excuses.
Their teamwork keeps rearing it's ugly head, being notoriously wasteful inside 50.
MELBOURNE, AUSTRALIA - APRIL 11: (L-R) Jaspa Fletcher, Josh Dunkley and Charlie Cameron of the Lions celebrate during the 2024 AFL Round 05 match between the Melbourne Demons and the Brisbane Lions at the Melbourne Cricket Ground on April 11, 2024 in Melbourne, Australia. (Photo by Michael Willson/AFL Photos via Getty Images)
Why Western Bulldogs can...
They may be the best team in the best form.
They have the personnel and the skipper to take them there.
If any club could do it from outside the four, it's the 2016 premiers.
Why Western Bulldogs can't...
They're facing the best team from the second half of the season in week one.
The travel factor makes it a tough task.
ADELAIDE, AUSTRALIA - APRIL 06: Marcus Bontempelli of the Bulldogs cg/ during the 2024 AFL Round 04 match between the Western Bulldogs and the Geelong Cats at Adelaide Oval on April 06, 2024 in Adelaide, Australia. (Photo by Sarah Reed/AFL Photos via Getty Images)
Why Hawthorn can...
They've been the best team since Round 8.
They have the most even spread of contributors in the comp.
Who is their Pendlebury, Selwood or Gawn? Can Sicily lead a premiership run?
MELBOURNE, AUSTRALIA - JUNE 01: James Sicily of the Hawks leads his team out onto the field during the round 12 AFL match between Hawthorn Hawks and Adelaide Crows at Melbourne Cricket Ground, on June 01, 2024, in Melbourne, Australia. (Photo by Quinn Rooney/Getty Images)
Why Carlton can...
Their entire finals campaign feels like a free swing
If last year is any indication, they are strong finals performers.
Cripps and Walsh will go to another level in September
Why Carlton can't...
You can't win it from 8th... surely.
Injuries have plagued them too much to win the flag.
Key forwards don't dominate finals, and the Blues rely on Curnow and McKay.
Week one at the Gabba is rough.
MELBOURNE, AUSTRALIA - APRIL 23: Adam Cerra of the Blues looks dejected after a loss during the 2023 AFL Round 06 match between the Carlton Blues and the St Kilda Saints at Marvel Stadium on April 23, 2023 in Melbourne, Australia. (Photo by Dylan Burns/AFL Photos via Getty Images)