Why Richmond might bid on Brisbane-tied teenager with Pick 1

To bid, or not to bid, that is the question when it comes to highly-rated Brisbane father-son selection Levi Ashcroft.

The 17-year-old is touted by many as the number one player from his draft class, matching the hype his brother Will received just two years ago. Set to join his sibling in Lions colours in 2025, the question has been raised as to when the top draft holders bid on Ashcroft.

The bid is certainly going to be matched by Brisbane, however by selecting Ashcroft higher up in the draft order, the Lions will have to cough up additional draft bidding points to secure him. Whilst the Lions likely will attain the points to secure the father-son, Academy player Sam Marshall could be left in limbo and available to all 17 other clubs should his selection place Brisbane in a points deficit to bid on.

A couple factors work in the Lions' favour. Early bidding selections receive a 20 per cent discount on draft points, meaning should Ashcroft be taken at Pick 1, the Lions will only pay 2400 points instead of 3000.

“We're cautiously optimistic we'll be able to get some more points,” Brisbane list boss Dom Ambrogio said.

Additionally, there's a status factor that some clubs account for. If clubs know that they won't secure the father-son or Academy player, they may pass on bidding and select a draftee that is available on the open market for the prestige of being Pick 1. It may also provide reassurance to their selection that they were the preferred choice.

This was seen in 2021 when Nick Daicos slid to the fourth overall selection in 2021, whilst Will Ashcroft was taken after Aaron Cadman in 2022. Moreover, Picks 1 and 2 will receive cash bonuses of $10,000 and $5,000 respectively, and clubs may want to reward their own players rather than a draftee headed for a rival club.

However, the opposite has happened before too, where Academy prospects and father-sons were bid on straight away. Most recently, Jamarra Ugle-Hagan was drafted at Pick 1 in 2020 when Adelaide bid on the Western Bulldogs' NGA product.

Attempting to draft a father-son talent first could also be beneficial for Richmond's second choice, as it removes the expectations of Pick 1; expectations that are enormously greater than any succeeding selections. Jason Horne-Francis and Harley Reid are two recent No.1 picks who have suffered the intense spotlight and scrutiny of being top of the draft class, whilst their following draft class counterparts have yet to headline a back page to the same relentless extent.

Of course, forcing Brisbane to match early would also diminish their draft points significantly in comparison to the picks after, should Richmond decide to be ruthless in their drafting approach. If Brisbane are made to bid on Ashcroft at Pick 1, they may have to shop its current first-round selection to increase their hand of points. The Lions' current best selection - Pick 20 - is worth only 912 draft points.

"Clearly we've got some work to do," Ambrogio added.

“(Not trading our 2025 first-round selection) would be the ideal world. Whether we're able to do that or not, we'll wait and see.”

A trade for Deven Robertson, who is on the radar of opposition clubs, could also provide Brisbane with additional draft picks, and thus, more draft points.

When prompted on whether they will bid on Ashcroft at Pick 1, Richmond list manager Blair Hartley played a straight bat in response.

“It's still too early to say,” Hartley said.

“We've only just finished the Combine. We'll go away with our team and assess where that sits. He's (Ashcroft) had a great year."

“Our philosophy has always been that we'll assess where they sit on the board and bid accordingly. If they're the next best available, we'll put a bid in.”

West Coast list manager Matt Clarke, who formerly worked at Richmond under Hartley, was asked what he would do in the Tigers' situation, as well as what the Eagles would do if Ashcroft still remains unselected at Pick 3.

He too applied a similar philosophy.

"As a recruiting manager, when I was in that position... we get paid to pick the best players, so we put him in the order and if they're in that spot then we'll bid on them, so I don't think we should deviate from that," Clarke said.

It remains unclear whether Ashcroft will join an esteemed group of players as the number one selection in 2024, despite arguably being the brightest talent in this year's draft class. Nonetheless, Brisbane must anticipate a merciless Richmond decision.

The Lions have until 7:30pm on Wednesday, October 16 to increase its draft hand through player trades, however they'll have the ability to swap picks during the two draft nights on November 20 and 21 too, to ensure they have the draft points available to match bids for their father-son and Academy talent.